119
FXUS64 KLCH 311750
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1250 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR COUNTIES AND
PARISHES NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR UNTIL 8 AM.
- DENSE SEA FOG ACROSS THE INLAND LAKES, BAYS, AND NEAR SHORE
COASTAL WATERS TO SPREAD INLAND UP TO I-10 AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 9 AM INLAND BUT MAY PERSIST OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE MORNING.
- VERY WARM, DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK UNTIL THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 954 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH LOWER ACADIANA AND THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING WITH CONVECTION ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER
ST. MARY PARISH AND THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH EAST AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING WITH
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE FINISHES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MADE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
ALSO, THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED A LITTLE EARLY
AS LIMITED OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY DENSE FOG AS REDUCED
VISIBILITY IS MAINLY FROM CONVECTION NOW.
RUA
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 83 HAS JUST BEEN ISSUED FOR COUNTIES AND
PARISHES NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR THROUGH 8 AM THIS MORNING.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTION INITIALIZING WITHIN THIS
AREA AT THIS TIME AND EXPECT THESE STORMS TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING A ROBUST MCS ACROSS THE REGION FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA
TO ACADIANA THROUGH THE MORNING AND WHILE THIS MAY BE A BIT
OVERDONE, THE GENERAL IDEA MAKES METEOROLOGICAL SENSE BASED ON THE
JUST COMPLETED 06Z SOUNDING WHICH DEPICTS STRONG LAPSE RATES OF
9 DEG C/KM. SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
ARE ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA JUST NORTH
OF ALEXANDRIA.
AWAY FROM STORMS, MARINE FOG OVER THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS
HAS BEEN WORKING INLAND OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DO SO UNTIL THE FRONT SWEEPS IT BACK
OFFSHORE LATER THIS MORNING.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STORMS THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE EAST CLEARING THE AREA BY LATE MORNING WITH THE SUN
LIKELY MAKING AN APPEARANCE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY IS "COLD" IN NAME ONLY AS THERE WON'T BE MUCH
DIFFERENCE IN SENSIBLE TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY TURN OUT
OF THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE TURNING BACK OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
TRAVERSES THE REGION.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS, COMBINED, WITH THE RETURN FLOW IN THE LOWER AND
MID LEVELS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO KICK OFF SOME DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AFTERNOON CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS IS THE CASE
WITH THIS VARIETY OF STORMS, THEY SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
JONES
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90 ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. DAILY AFTERNOON DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION LOOK
LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA IN THE WARMEST TEMPS.
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND
WITH THIS ONE HAVING A MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS WHICH
SHOULD DROP HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S AND LOWS INTO THE LOWER
50S. THIS MIGHT BE ONE OF THE LAST REAL GASPS OF SPRING FOR THIS
AREA SO BE SURE TO SAVOR IT.
JONES
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL THE TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR
KLFT AND KARA. A MIX OF CLEAR AND LOW CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT,
WILL MAKE CONDITIONS VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, LOW CLOUDS WILL REFORM WITH MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 143 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRIEFLY SHIFTS
WINDS TO THE NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON. UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES,
WARM MOIST AIR WILL MOVE OVER RELATIVELY COOLER SHELF WATERS
ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF DENSE SEA FOG FOR THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS AS WELL AS COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
TUESDAY AND WILL INCREASE BECOMING QUITE BREEZY WITH BUILDING
SEAS ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 80 54 81 69 / 20 0 10 0
LCH 84 63 80 71 / 30 0 0 0
LFT 82 62 81 72 / 90 0 10 0
BPT 85 64 80 71 / 10 0 10 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...07
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