288
FXUS64 KLCH 171115
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
615 AM CDT THU APR 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ONSHORE WINDS FROM THE GULF WILL BRING ABOUT HUMID CONDITIONS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
- DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
- CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE, RETURN FOR
EASTER SUNDAY AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT THU APR 17 2025
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT OUR REGION AND WILL KEEP US DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH OUR DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S. WARM AND VERY MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT THU APR 17 2025
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CHANGE AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND DIGS SOUTH,
OUR PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE, LEADING TO STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW. ON SUNDAY A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS
TWO PERIODS OF CONVECTION, WITH THE FIRST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A SECOND ROUND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW A
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH CAPE VALUES ABOVE
2000 J/KG, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6 AND 7 C/KM, AND DCAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 600 AND 800. WITH THIS IN MIND, THE SPC HAS PLACED
US UNDER A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5).
THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL ALONG THE COAST, BECOMING STATIONARY AND
ACTING AS A FOCAL POINT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE START OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT THU APR 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. RADAR SHOWS SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH OF AEX BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TERMINAL. DURING THE DAY WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AND WILL GUST
UP TO 20 KNOTS.
AN OVERCAST CLOUD DECK WILL LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE
EVENING FOR LCH AND BPT FOLLOWED BY AEX THEN LFT AND ARA AROUND
MIDNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT THU APR 17 2025
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE ON THURSDAY,
PREVAILING ELEVATED FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SMALL CRAFT
CAUTION WILL GO INTO EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE
UPGRADED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IF WINDS ARE STRONGER THAN
EXPECTED.
WAVES WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS WITH A COMBINATION
OF SWELL AND WIND WAVES. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE BETWEEN 6 AND 8 FEET
NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK AND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SWELL
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AND WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF 7 TO 8 SECONDS
AND WILL PEAK LATE IN THE WEEK.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF SEVERE, INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS A FRONT LINGERS NEAR COASTAL WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 84 67 87 68 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 81 69 82 71 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 81 69 85 70 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 81 69 84 71 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...14
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