656
FXUS64 KLCH 171727
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1227 PM CDT THU APR 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ONSHORE WINDS FROM THE GULF WILL BRING ABOUT HUMID CONDITIONS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
- DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
- CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE, RETURN FOR
EASTER SUNDAY AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT THU APR 17 2025
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT OUR REGION AND WILL KEEP US DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH OUR DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S. WARM AND VERY MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT THU APR 17 2025
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CHANGE AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND DIGS SOUTH,
OUR PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE, LEADING TO STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW. ON SUNDAY A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS
TWO PERIODS OF CONVECTION, WITH THE FIRST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A SECOND ROUND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW A
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH CAPE VALUES ABOVE
2000 J/KG, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6 AND 7 C/KM, AND DCAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 600 AND 800. WITH THIS IN MIND, THE SPC HAS PLACED
US UNDER A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5).
THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL ALONG THE COAST, BECOMING STATIONARY AND
ACTING AS A FOCAL POINT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE START OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT THU APR 17 2025
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER HAS DEVELOPED THANKS TO THE RETURN OF GULF
MOISTURE ON BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. WHILE MOST CIGS ARE CURRENTLY
ABOVE THE MVFR RANGE, EXPECT HEIGHTS TO DROP AFTER SUNDOWN/01Z.
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT, BUT
DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH AND DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WILL
KEEP BREEZY WINDS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
11
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 67 87 68 85 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 69 82 71 83 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 69 85 70 84 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 69 84 71 83 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...11
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