495
FXUS64 KLCH 172307
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
607 PM CDT THU APR 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ONSHORE WINDS FROM THE GULF WILL BRING ABOUT HUMID CONDITIONS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FOR EASTER SUNDAY AND
THE START OF NEXT WEEK
- THERE IS A 15% PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TX INTO CENTRAL LA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT THU APR 17 2025
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER HAS FORMED OVER THE REGION, AS SEEN BY
SATELLITE IMAGERY OR BY LOOKING OUT YOUR LOCAL WINDOW. THIS IS
INDICATION OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOISTURE
RETURN OFF OF THE GULF. EXPECT A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND OVER
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL FEEL RATHER WARM AND HUMID AS
WE MOVE INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. SATURDAY SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN DRY,
SO IF YOU HAVE EASTER HOLIDAY PLANS, THEY SHOULD BE ALRIGHT.
PLEASE REMAIN AWARE OF THE HEAT FOR THOSE VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
OUTDOORS.
11
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT THU APR 17 2025
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ABOUT FALLING HEIGHTS
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD LIGHT DRIZZLE CAN BE POSSIBLE
EASTER MORNING. HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT NEARS AND SLOUCHES INTO THE
REGION, A ROUND OF CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO
THE AREA. LATEST GUIDANCE PLACES BETTER SHEAR NEAR TO THE REGION
WHICH HAS VERY MARGINALLY INCREASED FORECASTER CONFIDENCE OF AN
ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK. LOOKING AT THINGS CURRENTLY, DAMAGING
DOWNBURSTING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. FOR THOSE
WHOSE OUTDOOR HOLIDAY PLANS EXTEND INTO SUNDAY, KEEP A VERY CLOSE
EYE ON THE FORECAST TO BEST PREPARE FOR AVOIDING AND REMAINING
SAFE FOR THIS COMING SEVERE RISK.
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BRING A BREAK IN THE HEAT OR
HUMIDITY GOING INTO THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
11
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT THU APR 17 2025
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE BREEZY SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHEST WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KNOTS.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE MOMENT WITH EXTENSIVE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS MOVING OVERHEAD. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL JET
WILL ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF LOW CLOUDS DURING THE NIGHT BELOW
THE ATMOSPHERIC CAP WITH MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS BY
18/06Z. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO VFR LEVELS BY 18/18Z.
RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT THU APR 17 2025
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH TO THE EAST AND UPPER
LOW TO THE NORTH IS BRINGING ABOUT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LONG
FETCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THESE INCREASED WINDS WILL BRING
ABOUT ELEVATED SEAS FROM TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN WATERS FOR ELEVATED WINDS AND
SEAS.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL COMES SUNDAY WHEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEARS THE REGION. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME
POSSIBLY SEVERE, WILL IMPACT NEARSHORE WATERS FROM LATER SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
11
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 66 87 68 86 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 69 83 70 82 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 68 83 70 84 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 68 84 70 83 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ450-452-
470-472.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...07
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