857
FXUS64 KLCH 181738
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1238 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ONSHORE WINDS FROM THE GULF WILL BRING ABOUT HUMID AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FOR EASTER SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
BREEZY, WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS THE REGION WILL RESIDE BETWEEN AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE SE
CONUS AND AN ELONGATED UPPER TROF TO THE WEST. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOME UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
TODAY ACROSS INTERIOR SE TX INTO CENTRAL LA. GREATER CLOUD COVER AND
HIGHER SFC MSTR WILL SHAVE A BIT OFF OF HIGHS FOR SAT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WINDS WILL FLIRT WITH
ADVISORY CRITERIA THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS, WITH SUSTAINED
VALUES BETWEEN 15-20 MPH AND PEAK GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH POSSIBLE.
13
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF FILLING AS IT
TRANSLATES EASTWARD, WITH THE FINAL ACT COMING AS A BASAL SHORTWAVE
ROUNDS AND EJECTS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON
SUN. THIS WILL ERODE THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SE CONUS RIDGE AND
ALLOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE SUN. FCST
SOUNDINGS IN THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT
CONVECTION, SO ANTICIPATE AT LEAST SOME PRE-FRONTAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS BROAD LIFT INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.
OTHERWISE, THE WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS IT OOZES INTO THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
WITH THE ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE TRACKING WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST AND
PULLING FARTHER AWAY TO THE NORTH WITH TIME, SHEAR PROGS ARE FAIRLY
MARGINAL AT THEIR PEAK AND ARE RATHER POOR BY THE TIME THE FRONT
GETS HERE. THINK THE LATEST SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK OF NO HIGHER THAN A
MRGL RISK FOR OUR AREA LOOKS ABOUT RIGHT.
WHAT REMAINS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT BACK TO
THE NORTH ON TUE, BUT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL HAVE EVOLVED INTO
ONE OF QUASI-ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW. ABSENT THE INHIBITING EFFECT OF
THE RIDGE AND AMID A LINGERING MOIST AIRMASS, DAILY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK, AUGMENTED BY AT
LEAST ONE IF NOT MORE DISTURBANCES TRANSLATING THROUGH THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT.
13
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
SOUTH WINDS HAVE BEEN STRONGER THIS MORNING THAN PREVIOUS
THINKING, SO PREVAILING WINDS HAVE ALL BEEN INCREASED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECT ELEVATED SOUTHERLY FLOW TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM SET TO MOVE DOWN INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
CLOUD CONDITIONS ARE SET TO FALL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
A DROP TO MVFR CIGS BY THIS EVENING, OR 00Z. LOW CEILINGS ARE THEN
LIKELY TO HANG AROUND UNTIL THERE IS A BREAK IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN.
SOME LIGHT SEA FOG MAY MOVE INLAND THIS EVENING BUT IMPACTS TO
TERMINALS IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
11
MARINE
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS IS BRINGING ABOUT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
LONG FETCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN ELEVATED SEAS INTO SUNDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE GULF WATERS
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL COMES
SUNDAY WHEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARS THE REGION, WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 87 67 86 68 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 83 69 82 71 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 84 69 83 70 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 84 70 83 71 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ450-
452-470-472-475.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...11
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