531
FXUS64 KLCH 190433
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1133 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY AS BREEZY TO GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. ANOTHER MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY.
- VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. CHECK ON
THE VULNERABLE GROUPS WHEN OUTDOORS.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FOR EASTER SUNDAY, SOME
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
ELEVATED SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL BECOME BREEZY ONCE
AGAIN BY LATE MORNING SATURDAY. WITH THE WINDS STAYING UP, FOG IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE. THE 19/00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING STILL
SHOWS A DECENT CAP IN PLACE BETWEEN 4K AND 5K FEET. EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS TO FORM UNDER THE CAP THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THE SOUTH
WINDS AND CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
RUA
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
THE WARMTH AND MOISTURE ARE HERE! ALL AREAS ARE IN THE 80S THIS
AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, IT
FEELS RATHER GROSS OUT THERE. THANKFULLY THE BREEZE IS PRESENT
HELPING TO MAKE THINGS FEEL A BIT LESS STICKY.
NO CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FOR TOMORROW, EXCEPT DEVELOPING LOW TO
THE NORTH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FURTHER, FURTHER
INCREASING DAYTIME WIND SPEEDS. THUS, A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE I-10 CORRIDOR SATURDAY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM. AS THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM STARTS ITS MARCH TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY, EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN UP WELL INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TO COVER THE HOLIDAY DAYTIME HOURS.
BEYOND A WINDY EASTER, THERE STILL REMAINS A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED FURTHER WITH ITS TIMING FOR STRONG
STORM ARRIVAL TO THE REGION. SHOWERY WEATHER SHOULD MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. ANY SHOWERS WHICH CAN DEEPEN
ENOUGH MAY CARRY A LOCALIZED WIND RISK, BUT GENERALLY, THE GREATER
THREAT DOESN'T APPEAR TO MANIFEST UNTIL THE LATER AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
STORMS ALONG THE MAIN FRONT START TO CONGEAL TOGETHER AND MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SEVERE PARAMETERS
SUPPORT CONVECTION WITH A DAMAGING WIND RISK. THERE MAY BE SOME
RISK THERE FOR HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO, BUT THESE SCENARIOS
ARE LESS LIKELY WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST EXPECTATION.
FOR THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS ON SATURDAY: STAY COOL AND HYDRATED.
CHECK ON THOSE VULNERABLE POPULATIONS WHILE OUTDOORS. PLAN TO
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY: AGAIN, VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY MOVE IN THROUGH THE MORNING. A SLOW
MOVING LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO START MOVING THROUGH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PLAN ACCORDINGLY, AND IF YOU HEAR THUNDER,
GO AHEAD AND MOVE YOUR PLANS INDOORS.
11/CALHOUN
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
WIDESPREAD SHOWERY ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE
SHORTTERM FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGS OVERHEAD. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
COULD BE IN THE MIX, BUT GENERALLY SPEAKING, THERE IS NO
EXPECTATION OF SEVERE WEATHER. RATHER, EXPECT PERIODS OF RAINFALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
ALL FORCING ALOFT WASHES OUT BY TUESDAY MORNING ALLOWING THE
BOUNDARY TO LINGER NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR INTO THE MIDWEEK. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING, EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERY WEATHER WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIX.
THERE COULD BE A FEW PERIODS OF MORE ENHANCED WEATHER AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE PULSES MOVE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. COMBINED
WITH DEEP GULF MOISTURE, THERE COULD BE A LOCALIZED FLOOD RISK IN
AREAS WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL TRAINS.
11
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING AS FAR AS THE AVIATION FORECAST
GOES. ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE
AREA BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF FLORIDA AND A SERIES OF LOWER
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. GUSTS WILL INCREASE AFTER
SUNRISE, THEN BY 19/18Z, GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 25 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED.
GOOD SIZE CAP IN PLACE WILL KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY
AWAY DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL CREATE LOW CLOUD DECKS UNDER THE CAP WITH
CEILINGS AT THE MVFR LEVEL FROM ROUGHLY NOW THROUGH 19/18Z WITH
CEILINGS IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE DECREASING
BACK INTO MVFR AFTER 20/01Z.
RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS IS BRINGING ABOUT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
LONG FETCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN ELEVATED SEAS INTO EARLY MONDAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL 0 TO 60 NM WATERS
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE
OF RAINFALL COMES SUNDAY WHEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARS THE REGION,
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 68 85 68 85 / 0 0 0 30
LCH 70 82 70 83 / 0 0 0 20
LFT 70 83 70 84 / 0 0 0 10
BPT 70 83 71 84 / 0 0 10 40
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ044-045-055-
073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ515-516-615-
616.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ450-452-455-
470-472-475.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...07
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