689
FXUS64 KLCH 192318
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
618 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY AS GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. ANOTHER MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FOR EASTER SUNDAY, SOME
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEK.
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2025
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST, AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED TO OUR NORTH. THAT GIVES US A TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND STRONGER WINDS TODAY, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY
IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE. EXPECTING SIMILAR CONDITIONS TOMORROW
ON EASTER SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S, SO A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TOMORROW WILL BRING SIMILAR AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AS WELL.
WITH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW, OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE NOT DROPPING
TOO FAR, ONLY INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THIS LOW TEMPERATURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS WELL.
SPC DOES HAVE A SMALL AREA OF EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA IN
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST THREAT
WILL BE UP IN ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI.
EVEN THOUGH THERE IS NOT A HIGH SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, WE ARE
EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA,EXPANDING TO OUR
ENTIRE REGION ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. RAIN TOTALS
WILL RANGE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA, TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES IN EAST TEXAS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2025
THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT IN OUR REGION ON TUESDAY AND MOVES BACK
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. WHAT THIS MEANS IS WE STAY IN A DEEP MOISTURE
PATTERN, AND ANYTIME A MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS OUR AREA, WE WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SPC HAS NOT DESIGNATED ANY PARTICULAR AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS, BUT
WE WILL MONITOR THAT TREND AS WE GO THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, AS
WE ARE IN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER SEASON FOR OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, WE WILL STAY RUNNING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL (2-3
DEGREES) DURING THE DAY, AND MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL (10
DEGREES) AT NIGHT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2025
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. CIGS COULD
REACH MVFR AT TIMES CLOSER TO THE COAST TONIGHT. OTHERWISE SOME
PROB30S WERE INTRODUCED FOR AEX, BPT AND LCH TERMINALS STARTING
LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2025
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH TONIGHT THANKS TO THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT, BEFORE COMING DOWN A LITTLE ON SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 68 85 67 81 / 0 50 50 80
LCH 71 83 69 83 / 0 30 30 60
LFT 70 84 70 84 / 0 20 10 60
BPT 72 84 69 83 / 0 50 50 70
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ044-045-055-073-
074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ515-516-615-616.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ450-452-455-
470-472-475.
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...27
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