617
FXUS64 KLCH 211218
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
718 AM CDT MON APR 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY
- TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL
- TIDES WILL RUN ABOUT ONE HALF TO ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK
WITH A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON APR 21 2025
KLCH RADAR SHOWS ONGOING CLUSTERS OF STORMS ACROSS INTERIOR SE TX,
FROM NORTHERN HARDIN COUNTY ACROSS TYLER INTO NORTHERN JASPER
COUNTY. ONE ISOLATED STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORM HAS BEEN
NOTED TREKKING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TYLER COUNTY INTO JASPER COUNTY AND
IS NOW APPROACHING NEWTON COUNTY. MEANWHILE, BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN
TO THE WEST OF THIS CELL HAVE RESULTED IN A RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHERN TYLER COUNTY (WITH A FFW NOW IN EFFECT).
WITH CONVECTION CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND TRAIN ACROSS THIS AREA,
FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AND ADDITIONAL
WARNINGS MAY BECOME NECESSARY.
THIS ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF A SLOW-MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED FROM N LA ACROSS E TX TO WEST OF
HOUSTON, AND AIDED BY A PASSING IMPULSE ALOFT TRAVERSING THE BASE
OF A TROUGH LIFTING NE ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS AND DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WHILE
INTERMITTENT DISTURBANCES PROPAGATE EAST AMID PREVAILING WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON APR 21 2025
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY STALL ACROSS E TX TODAY AS THE
PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS FURTHER NORTHEAST. MOISTURE/LIFT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ELEVATED ACROSS OUR SE TX ZONES NORTH OF I-10 INTO W AND CENTRAL
LA. WHILE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED, AND AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY STAY
AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. STORMS WILL LIKEWISE STAY BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS, GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND MODEST SHEAR OVER THE REGION. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AND DAYTIME HEATING WANES. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL
OVER THE REGION THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH PWATS RANGING FROM
1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES (APPROACHING THE 90TH PERCENTILE). DAYTIME
HEATING COMBINED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES TRANSLATING OVER THE
REGION AND MINIMAL CAPPING WILL LEAD TO A DAILY UPTICK IN POPS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
FOR TEMPERATURES, TODAY'S HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER IN AREAS
WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER/HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WITH WARMER TEMPS
IN AREAS THAT SHOULD HAVE LESS RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW BREAKS IN
THE OVERCAST. THE COOLER AREAS WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 70S, WHILE WARMER AREAS ACROSS S CENTRAL LA ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE MIDDLE 80S. OTHERWISE, HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S EACH NIGHT.
24
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON APR 21 2025
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH DAILY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE NW GULF COAST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING. THIS WILL
ALSO KEEP ANY FRONTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA, THUS UNUSUALLY WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
24
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT MON APR 21 2025
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WERE RESULTING IN
MVFR TO IFR CIGS AT AREA TERMINALS. A BAND OF WEAK SHRA COULD
APPROACH AEX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT OTHERWISE CONVECTION HAS
REMAINED AWAY FROM THE AIRPORTS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT STORMS
ACROSS SE TX COULD REACH BPT LATER THIS MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO INSERT MORE THAN VC AT THIS TIME. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
THE VFR THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO MIDDAY, THEN PREVAIL THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT WHEN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP, YIELDING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KT CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO NEAR
CALM THIS EVENING.
24
MARINE
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON APR 21 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS,
WITH NO SIGNALS FOR ANY CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH THE WEEK. NO HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
24
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 81 64 84 64 / 60 30 70 20
LCH 83 68 83 69 / 40 10 50 10
LFT 85 69 84 69 / 30 10 60 10
BPT 82 68 84 69 / 60 10 50 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24
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