309
FXUS64 KLCH 220429
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1129 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY
- TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL
- TIDES WILL RUN ABOUT ONE-HALF TO ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL THIS
WEEK WITH A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
UPDATE
WX MAP SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ROUGHLY FROM LUFKIN,
TX TO JUST NORTH OF ALEXANDRIA, LA. RADAR SHOWING ANY REMAINING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
EAST OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
MID/UPPER LEVEL MAP ANALYSIS SHOWS 500-250 MB SHORTWAVE AXIS OVER
THE AREA MOVING EASTWARD. ALSO, SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWS SUCH WAVE AXIS,
COUPLED WITH THE LIGHT WINDS, MAY LEAD TO FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA, AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS, MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME, NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG, BUT PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG LIKELY BY DAYBREAK
OVER THESE AREAS. UPDATES THIS EVENING INCLUDE THE LATEST SHORT
TERM FORECAST GUIDANCE, WHICH REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED.
08/DML
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
CLIPPING THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE MEANDERING.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST IS
MAINTAINING A SRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED BEYOND THE RESIDENT BOUNDARY, WE'RE NOT SEEING
THE ELEVATED/GUSTY WINDS LIKE WE'VE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS, WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE TODAY. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE FROM FL UP THE
ATLANTIC COAST WHILE WEAK TROFFING IS NOTED OVER THE NRN TIER OF
STATES WITH A WSWRLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER OUR AREA...A SERIES OF
SUBTLE DISTURBANCES ARE NOTED WITHIN THIS FLOW. LOCAL 88DS SHOWED
QUITE A BIT OF PRECIP EARLIER, ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS
BEEN ON THE WANE AS THE LEAD DISTURBANCE IS PUSHING EWD, TAKING
THE CONVECTION LARGELY WITH IT. OTHERWISE, A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
WARM DAY IS ONGOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PER SFC OBS.
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES AS FAR AS THE SHORT
TERM GOES THIS AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECTING ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ITS
MEANDERING WAYS, WHILE THE WEAK PERTURBATIONS CONTINUE TO CROSS
FROM TIME TO TIME. THROW DAYTIME HEATING INTO THE MIX ALONG WITH
GOOD MOISTURE (FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MEAN RH VALUES UP TO
AROUND 70 PERCENT AND PWAT VALUES TO AROUND 1.6 INCHES) AND
SCATTERED MAINLY LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER STATIC AS WELL AS
DAYTIME HIGHS GET UP INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S...JUST ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS...DESPITE THE PRECIP/THICK CLOUD COVER.
FORECAST MINS ARE PROGGED TO RUN NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE LATE
APRIL NORMS WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 60S...LOWER 70S NEAR THE
COAST.
25
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
CONDITIONS LOOK TO FINALLY BEGIN IMPROVING BY THE WEEKEND AS
RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST. IN RESPONSE, THE SFC BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT FARTHER NWD AND OUT OF THE REGION. THE RESULT
WILL BE A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH JUST MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES
AT BEST. WARMER THAN CLIMO TEMPS WILL LIKEWISE PERSIST.
25
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE THE FORMATION OF DENSE FOR,
ESPECIALLY FOR BPT AND LCH. PERSISTENT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LAST
UNTIL SUNRISE WITH PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. FOG IS EXPECTED AT AEX, ARA, LFT BUT NOT AS DENSE
SINCE THEY ARE FORECASTED TO HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED IF FOG FORMATION IS MORE
ROBUST THAN EXPECTED.
AFTER SUNRISE LOW CLOUDS WILL KEEP CEILING AT MVFR LEVELS UNTIL
MIDDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED SRLY WINDS LOOKS LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS LOWER PRESSURES RETURN TO THE PLAINS, TIGHTENING THE
GRADIENT SOMEWHAT...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
REMAIN BELOW THE NEED FOR ANY HEADLINES ON THE CWF.
25
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 65 83 63 83 / 20 60 20 70
LCH 68 82 69 83 / 0 50 10 50
LFT 68 84 68 84 / 10 60 10 50
BPT 68 83 69 83 / 10 40 10 50
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...14
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