456
FXUS64 KLCH 221745
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1245 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, WITH
MARGINAL RISKS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER TODAY
- DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE WEEKEND
- TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH LATE APRIL
SYNOPSIS/UPDATE
ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
THE LATEST UA ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS WITH STRONGER WESTERLIES NOTED ACROSS THE N US.
CLOSER TO THE NW GULF, A DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO EXIT E-NE, WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT LEFT IN ITS WAKE.
AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WAS POISED ACROSS
N LA SOUTHWEST TOWARD CENTRAL TX. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, A WARM
AND MUGGY AIRMASS IS SITUATED OVER THE REGION, WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND DEWPOINTS AT OR JUST A DEGREE OR
TWO BELOW AIR TEMPS. GOES NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY SHOWS
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXPANDING OVER THE AREA. ISOLATED POCKETS OF
DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES, BUT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.
FINALLY, ON AN UNRELATED NOTE, THIS SHOULD OFFICIALLY BE MY LAST
AFD FOR WFO LCH (BARRING ANY SCHEDULE CHANGES) AS THIS FORECASTER
WILL BE RETIRING ON APRIL 30. WORKING AT NWS LAKE CHARLES OVER
THE PAST FEW DECADES HAS OFTEN BEEN CHALLENGING, AND IT SEEMS I'VE
WORKED NEARLY EVERY KIND OF WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE, FROM NUMEROUS
HURRICANES, TORNADOES AND FLOODS TO EXTREME DROUGHT/FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, AND EVEN A BLIZZARD! MANY THANKS TO MY CO-WORKERS AS
WELL AS OUR NEIGHBOR OFFICES AND NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ALL THEIR
SUPPORT AND COLLABORATION OVER THE YEARS, AND BEST WISHES TO THOSE
WHO WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD THE LINE FOR THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE. IF MY YOUNG CO-WORKERS ARE ANY INDICATION, THE NWS LOOKS
TO BE IN GOOD HANDS.
24
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
THE LINGERING FRONT IN THE VICINITY WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL FORCING WHICH, WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY WITHIN AN UNCAPPED AIRMASS, WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR, WITH CONVECTION MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO THE SOUTH. WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE (PWATS RANGING FROM ~1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES), STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. MEANWHILE,
INSTABILITY AND MODEST LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS, WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL THE LIKELIEST THREATS. MARGINAL RISKS
FOR BOTH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 4) AND SEVERE WEATHER
(LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) HAVE BEEN OUTLINED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TODAY.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE MOVES
OVER THE REGION. AT THIS TIME, NO RISK AREAS HAVE BEEN DELINEATED
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OR SEVERE WEATHER, BUT WITH A SIMILAR
ENVIRONMENT/SETUP, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED FOR SOME ISOLATED
STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS OR STRONG WIND GUSTS TO FORM.
ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN WANE WEDNESDAY EVENING, BUT ANOTHER DAY OF
SCATTERED STORMS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
INTERACT WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT AS WELL AS ANY LEFTOVER
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES IN THE LOW LEVELS.
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY
CLOUDS/CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE MID-APRIL NORMALS.
24
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT
DAILY COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE AS FORCING
ALOFT WEAKENS. BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK, RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE NW
GULF COAST. THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AS WELL AS MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK.
MEANWHILE, MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF MOIST AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THUS,
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT COOL OFF TOO MUCH, AND ARE EXPECTED TO
ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE POTENTIAL HEAT RISK LEVELS WILL BE LIMITED,
INDIVIDUALS UNACCUSTOMED OR SENSITIVE TO THE HEAT/HUMIDITY SHOULD
REMAIN CAUTIOUS WHEN OUTDOORS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.
24
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
SFC OBS SHOW GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ONGOING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ALTHOUGH WITH TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS...THESE CIGS SHOULD GO
ALL VFR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MEANWHILE, LOCAL 88DS
SHOW WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH LOOKS TO
GRADUALLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS HEATING
CONTINUES...THE TAFS ARE CURRENTLY CARRYING VCTS TO ACCOUNT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS/TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE CEILINGS WILL
LOWER AGAIN LATER TONIGHT, WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY PRIOR TO
SUNRISE. FOG GUIDANCE SHOWS SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT LATE AND IFR
CONDITIONS LOOK POSSIBLE LATE.
25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS,
WITH NO SIGNALS FOR ANY CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH THE WEEK. NO HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
24
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 83 63 83 64 / 50 30 70 20
LCH 83 68 82 69 / 30 10 60 10
LFT 84 68 83 68 / 50 20 60 10
BPT 84 70 82 69 / 20 20 60 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...25
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