044
FXUS64 KLCH 222035
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
335 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING
- DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE WEEKEND
- TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH LATE APRIL
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NOW NORTH OF US, OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SRN
ATLANTIC COAST IS MAINTAINING A SRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TODAY SHOWS MORE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
WSWRLY FLOW IN PLACE WITH A SERIES OF SUBTLE DISTURBANCES NOTED
WITHIN IT. AS DAYTIME HEATING RAMPS UP, LOCAL 88DS SHOW INCREASING
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, ESPECIALLY OVER OUR LA ZONES. OTHERWISE, A
VARIABLY CLOUDY AND WARM DAY IS ONGOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
PER SFC OBS.
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES AS FAR AS THE SHORT
TERM GOES THIS AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECTING ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ITS
MEANDERING WAYS BEFORE WASHING OUT. MEANWHILE THE WEAK
PERTURBATIONS ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE CROSSING THE REGION FROM
TIME TO TIME. ADD IN DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH GOOD MOISTURE
(FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MEAN RH VALUES UP TO AROUND 70
PERCENT AND PWAT VALUES TO AROUND 1.6 INCHES) AND SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW.
BY THURSDAY, A LITTLE MORE RIDGING ALOFT IS NOTED IN TODAY'S
MODEL SOLUTIONS IN RESPONSE TO A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST. ANY ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES ARE
SMALLER IN SCOPE AND CONFINED TO THE NRN ZONES AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER STATIC AS WELL AS
DAYTIME HIGHS GET UP INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S...JUST ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS...DESPITE THE PRECIP/THICK CLOUD COVER.
FORECAST MINS ARE PROGGED TO RUN NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE LATE
APRIL NORMS WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 60S...LOWER 70S NEAR THE
COAST.
25
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
AFTER FRIDAY, WHICH LOOKS SIMILAR TO THURSDAY, PASSES, THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRY COURTESY OF THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED RIDGING ALOFT. HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
MUGGY AS SRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW LINGERS, KEEPING DEWPOINTS ELEVATED.
25
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
SFC OBS SHOW GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ONGOING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ALTHOUGH WITH TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS...THESE CIGS SHOULD GO
ALL VFR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MEANWHILE, LOCAL 88DS
SHOW WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH LOOKS TO
GRADUALLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS HEATING
CONTINUES...THE TAFS ARE CURRENTLY CARRYING VCTS TO ACCOUNT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS/TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE CEILINGS WILL
LOWER AGAIN LATER TONIGHT, WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY PRIOR TO
SUNRISE. FOG GUIDANCE SHOWS SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT LATE AND IFR
CONDITIONS LOOK POSSIBLE LATE.
25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING ANY HEADLINES ON THE CWF FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
25
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 64 84 65 84 / 20 60 20 50
LCH 69 83 69 84 / 0 50 10 20
LFT 68 84 69 84 / 10 50 10 30
BPT 70 84 70 84 / 0 50 10 20
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...25
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