704
FXUS64 KLCH 231731
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1231 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATER THURSDAY
- DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE WEEKEND
- TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH LATE APRIL
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND CAM GUIDANCE. EXPECT DAYTIME HEATING TO GET SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GOING AGAIN AHEAD OF THE DECAYING MCS BOUNDARY AND
ALSO ALONG THE LEFT OVER OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CAPE IS NOT
PROJECTED TO BE AS HIGH TODAY, ALONG WITH WEAK SHEAR, ALTHOUGH
LAPSE RATES LOOK GOOD, SO IF THE STORMS CAN REALLY GET GOING,
HAIL HEAVY RAINFALL LOOK TO BE THE MAIN ISSUES.
RUA
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
A DECAYING STATIONARY BOUNDARY LINGERS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION
EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WORTH NOTING LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS MAY ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF ACADIANA. BROADER SOUTHEASTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW PERSISTS, HOWEVER, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE LA / TX BORDER.
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
WILL HELP FIRM SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SWLA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS ILLUSTRATES SUFFICIENT LAPSE RATES ABOVE
7.0°C/KM IN THE MID LEVELS COUPLED WITH A ML CAPE IN EXCESS OF
1000J/KG*K WHICH CAN SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THAT SAID, THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT IS QUITE
AMBIGUOUS FOR HI-RES SHORT RANGE MODELS TO BEST CAPTURE
PRECIPITATION TAKING PLACE. ONGOING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO WAIN AND SHIFT SOUTH / EAST TOWARD THE GULF COAST.
A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CAP MAY SLOW / MITIGATE THIS ACTIVITY DURING
THE MID MORNING HOURS BEFORE DIURNAL HEATING ADDS STRONGER SURFACE
BASED COMPONENTS. NEEDLESS TO SAY, WHILE A WELL DEFINED SEVERE
THREAT IS NOT IN PLACE, ISOLATED WIND / HAIL THREATS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE. MORE OF A CONCERN IS THE HYDRO ASPECT. PREVIOUS TWO DAYS
WITH A SIMILAR MESOSCALE / SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT HAVE ALLOWED FLASH
FLOODING TO OCCUR WHERE FAVORABLE DESTABILIZATION IS REALIZED AMID A
WELL MOISTENED LOWER TROPOSPHERE. MODIFICATIONS IN THE FIRST 6-12
HOURS OF THE FORECAST MAY BE NECESSARY LATER TODAY TO REFLECT THE
AFOREMENTIONED TRENDS.
SETTING THE SHORT RANGE MESOSCALE QUANDARY ASIDE, HIGHS WILL WARM
INTO THE LOW - MID 80'S TODAY WHILE MINOR PERTURBATIONS IN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW MODIFY INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME, THE DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LIFTS
ACROSS THE COLORADO ROCKIES SHIFTING THE STRONGER BAROCLINIC
ENVIRONMENT FURTHER NORTH INTO THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. POPS STILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AS THE LOCAL AIRMASS WILL
EXPERIENCE DESTABILIZATION AND ALLOW CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION TO OCCUR
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON- LIKELY ON AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SCALE. FRIDAY, SPEED CONVERGENCE ALOFT INCREASES AS BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THEREFORE, WHILE TEMPERATURES TREND FURTHER IN THE MID TO PERHAPS
THE UPPER 80'S, SFC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED TO REMAIN TOWARD THE DRY
SIDE DESPITE ONSHORE FLOW.
KOWALSKI / 30
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
SATURDAY, THE REGION OF STRONGER BAROCLINICITY PREVIOUSLY OVER THE
MIDWEST, NOW MOVES EAST AND DEEPENS A SURFACE LOW INTO NEW ENGLAND
WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGING WSW OVER NORTHERN TX.
LOCALLY CONDITIONS APPEAR MORE STABLE WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
DEVELOPING ROUGHING 2-4KM AGL. DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS FORECAST TO
STAY FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK MONDAY AS RIDGING
EXPANDS SOUTH OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FOLLOWING THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW TRAILING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO
THE NW ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR WARM AND FAIRLY DRY
WEATHER TO STAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AHEAD.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA FROM A LEFT OVER MCS. THIS
WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE KBPT AND KAEX TERMINALS WITH PREVAILING
SHOWERS AND VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS TO GO ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS.
THE REMAINDER OF TERMINALS WILL SEE POP-UP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR
CEILINGS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET WITH
TERMINALS MAINLY DEALING WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING FROM PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.
RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
WINDS AND SEAS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH
WHILE REMAINING WELL BELOW HAZARD CRITERIA. THAT SAID, AREAS OF
PATCHY FOG CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE HUGGING THE COAST NEAR THE
ATCHAFALAYA ATTEMPTING TO SPREAD WEST DURING THE AM HOURS. STEADY
LIGHT SE BREEZES TONIGHT EXPECTED TO KEEP MARINE FOG MINIMAL TO
NULL.
30
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 84 65 84 66 / 60 30 50 10
LCH 84 70 84 70 / 50 10 30 10
LFT 84 69 84 69 / 50 10 40 10
BPT 82 70 84 70 / 60 10 20 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...07
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