656
FXUS64 KLCH 232027
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
327 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH MAINLY SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
- AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY HAVE BEEN MAINLY FOCUSED OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH ENERGY FROM A LEFT OVER MCS. ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN MORE ISOLATED OVER LOUISIANA AS CLOUD COVER HAS HELP LIMIT
DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AFTER
SUNSET. WITH MORE STABLE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT, EXPECT MORE LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG.
SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MEANWHILE, ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR WEAK PERTURBATIONS TO MOVE ACROSS TO INTERACT WITH THE GULF
MOISTURE AND ANY RESIDUAL MESOSCALE SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND DAYTIME
HEATING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME, PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ARE NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE A FACTOR, ESPECIALLY IF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY FALLS OVER LOCATIONS THAT HAVE RECEIVED A DECENT
AMOUNT OF RECENT RAINFALL.
RUA
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM NORTHERN OLD MEXICO. THIS RIDGE WILL
BRING DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS TO HELP CAP THE ATMOSPHERE AND
LIMIT CONVECTION.
WITH THE LACK OF CONVECTION AND A CONTINUATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE, HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR APRIL, CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM.
RUA
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA FROM A LEFT OVER MCS. THIS
WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE KBPT AND KAEX TERMINALS WITH PREVAILING
SHOWERS AND VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS TO GO ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS.
THE REMAINDER OF TERMINALS WILL SEE POP-UP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR
CEILINGS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET WITH
TERMINALS MAINLY DEALING WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING FROM PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.
RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
A SURFACE RIDGE EAST OF FLORIDA WILL EXTEND ACROSS INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
MAINLY LOW SEAS.
RUA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 65 84 66 86 / 30 50 10 40
LCH 70 84 70 84 / 10 30 0 20
LFT 69 84 69 85 / 10 40 0 20
BPT 70 84 70 85 / 10 20 0 20
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07
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