559
FXUS64 KLCH 240303
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1003 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH MAINLY SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
- AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.
UPDATE
WX MAP SHOWS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. RIDGING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF, KEEPING SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.
SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWING REMNANT MCV OVER THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA
BORDER GENERATING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE, MAINLY THE
HRRR, DOES PICK UP ON THIS FEATURE, AND KEEPS INTERMITTENT SHOWERS
AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ACROSS THIS AREA. WPC CONTINUES THE MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS THIS AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THIS AREA. OTHERWISE, OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO
NEAR 70 EXPECTED.
08/DML
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY HAVE BEEN MAINLY FOCUSED OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH ENERGY FROM A LEFT OVER MCS. ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN MORE ISOLATED OVER LOUISIANA AS CLOUD COVER HAS HELP LIMIT
DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AFTER
SUNSET. WITH MORE STABLE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT, EXPECT MORE LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG.
SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MEANWHILE, ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR WEAK PERTURBATIONS TO MOVE ACROSS TO INTERACT WITH THE GULF
MOISTURE AND ANY RESIDUAL MESOSCALE SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND DAYTIME
HEATING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME, PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ARE NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE A FACTOR, ESPECIALLY IF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY FALLS OVER LOCATIONS THAT HAVE RECEIVED A DECENT
AMOUNT OF RECENT RAINFALL.
RUA
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM NORTHERN OLD MEXICO. THIS RIDGE WILL
BRING DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS TO HELP CAP THE ATMOSPHERE AND
LIMIT CONVECTION.
WITH THE LACK OF CONVECTION AND A CONTINUATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE, HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR APRIL, CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM.
RUA
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
RADAR SHOWING TWO CLUSTERS OF TSRA, BOTH AFFECTING BPT AND AEX FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ELSEWHERE, VCTS LEFT AT LCH FOR ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE CLUSTER OVER SE TX THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. FOR LFT/ARA, NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH CONVECTION TO
AFFECT THESE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MVFR
VISIBILITIES & CEILINGS EXPECTED BY 08Z, WITH INTERMITTENT IFR
VISIBILITIES & CEILINGS BETWEEN 09-13Z AT ALL SITES. EXPECTING
ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA BETWEEN 18-24Z THURSDAY FOR AEX HIGHLIGHTING
WITH A PROB30 GROUP FOR TSRA. FURTHER SOUTH AT BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA
WITH LOWER CHANCES OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS, WILL ONLY MENTION
VCTS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
08/DML
MARINE
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
A SURFACE RIDGE EAST OF FLORIDA WILL EXTEND ACROSS INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
MAINLY LOW SEAS.
RUA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 65 83 66 86 / 60 60 10 40
LCH 70 84 70 84 / 30 30 0 20
LFT 69 84 69 86 / 30 50 10 20
BPT 70 84 71 84 / 50 20 10 20
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...08
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