821
FXUS64 KLCH 240943
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
443 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND MUGGY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE SUNDAY WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
PERSISTING GOING INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF
SETX AND CENLA ON MONDAY & TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
CALM CURRENT CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S AND AREAS OF FOG.
WINDS ARE HELPING TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. HOWEVER THERE
COULD BE AREAS OF PATCHY TO DENSE FOG OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY
OVER THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS TODAY AND TOMORROW. BY MONDAY,
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE. A MARGINAL RISK ERO COVERS
PARTS OF SETX AND CENLA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN ESTABLISHED DURING THE SHORT TERM. A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW, COMBINED WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE, WILL
INTERACT WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES,
SUPPORTING SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM , WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHILE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, HEAVIER RAINFALL
RATES ARE ANTICIPATED FARTHER INLAND, PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENLA
AND AREAS NORTH OF THE FA. TUESDAY, THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA WILL HAVE A MARGINAL RISK OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH EVEN
GREATER POTENTIAL JUST NORTH OF THE CWA AND INTO PARTS OF CENLA.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOSE MOMENTUM
AND BECOME QUASISTATIONARY AS IT TEMPORARILY SETTLES ACROSS THE
GULF COAST. BY WEDNESDAY, THE THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND
ASSOCIATED FLASH FLOODING WILL EXPAND TO ENCOMPASS NEARLY THE
ENTIRE CWA. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED SLOW MOVEMENT AND PERSISTENCE OF
THE BOUNDARY, CONTINUED ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARE LIKELY, AND
ADDITIONAL DAYS WITH HIGHLIGHTED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT CURRENTLY
FORECAST, ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE AND WILL REQUIRE CLOSE MONITORING IN THE COMING DAYS.
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL HELP TO MODERATE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES, GENERALLY KEEPING THEM NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2025
ALL CONVECTION HAS DIED OFF, WITH ONLY FEW MVFR CLOUDS LINGERING
IN THE REGION. ALOFT, CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM STRONG STORMS IN
SOUTHWEST TEXAS IS MOVING OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST. WINDS ARE
NEARING CALM, BUT REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH.
ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY RADIATION FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. SO
FAR, FOG DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN LIMITED DUE TO CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD,
AND THIS WILL BE THE CASE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. KEPT
MENTION OF VIS TO 5 TO 6 SM AT ALL TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
INLAND FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 06Z TONIGHT, AS SEEN IN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS.
VIS AND CLOUD COVER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WITH SUNRISE AND
DAYTIME HEATING. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED PREVAILING SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS DURING DAYTIME HOURS SATURDAY.
GUIDANCE ISN'T AS EXCITED FOR SEABREEZE CONVECTION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON LIKE IT HAS BEEN IN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. MIXING MIGHT
STOP THIS BOUNDARY FROM FORMING. EVEN STILL, INCLUDED PROB30
GROUPS FOR STORMS AT LFT AND ARA AS DIFFERENTIAL LAND HEATING
COULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
GUIDANCE SENDS AN MCS DOWN THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA/WEST MISSISSIPPI DURING AFTERNOON HOURS. FEW MODELS
BRING CONVECTION ALL THE WAY WEST TO AEX, HOWEVER, THERE IS ENOUGH
CONCERN FOR IMPACTS HERE THAT PROB30 GROUP FOR -TSRA WAS INCLUDED
HERE AS WELL.
11/CALHOUN
MARINE
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2025
ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN A MODEST INCREASE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE EXPECTED OVER
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER TO FOLLOW FROM
TUESDAY ON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 92 72 93 73 / 30 10 20 10
LCH 88 76 89 77 / 10 0 10 10
LFT 89 75 90 75 / 20 0 20 10
BPT 89 77 90 77 / 20 0 10 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...11
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