955
FXUS64 KLCH 241933
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
233 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND MUGGY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER PERSISTING
GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF
SETX AND CENLA THIS COMING MONDAY, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WHILE
SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS SLACK. WARM, HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD ACROSS SETX AND SWLA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OZARKS TOWARD THE GA
ATLANTIC COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST TEXAS
WHICH WILL HELP DEEPEN SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WIND FLOW ACROSS THE NW
GULF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 18Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING INDICATES A
STRONG LOW - MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.7°C/KM WITH AN EXUBERANT
AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL, VERY MOIST 1000-600MB PROFILE BELOW
THE MID LEVEL DRY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HEDGES
PWATS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE AT 1.86". THIS TYPE OF ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. GIVEN THE THERMO PROFILE, TROPICAL FUNNELS CAN OFTEN RESULT
IN THIS ENVIRONMENT TOO, HOWEVER, A LACK OF WINDSHEAR WILL HINDER
SEVERE MODES THIS AFTERNOON, APART FROM ISOLATED WIND / SMALL
HAIL IN STRONGER PULSE THUNDERSHOWERS. WORTH NOTHING, SLOW STORM
MOTION VECTORS WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVY RAIN RATES FOR A FEW
BACKYARDS.
FORECAST PROGNOSIS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REMAIN STALLED ACROSS TX THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WITH THE STRONGER REGION OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS NETX AND NORTHERN LA, PRECIPITATION
LOCALLY WILL ORGANIZE AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PULSE LIKE
THUNDERSHOWERS FUELED BY DIURNAL HEATING AND COPIOUS GULF
MOISTURE. WEAK MID LEVEL INVERSIONS WILL HELP LIMIT GROWTH /
DURATION OF THUNDERSHOWERS AMID WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT,
HOWEVER, THE OPPORTUNITY DOES EXIST FOR SOME CELLS TO GAIN ENOUGH
DEPTH FOR TO PERSIST LONGER. HIGHS WILL TREND TOWARD UPPER 80S /
LOW 90'S WHILE LOWS REMAIN NOTABLY WARMER CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS- IN
THE LOW TO MID 70'S.
KOWALSKI / 30
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
THE SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO ACCELERATE INTO THE TN VALLEY BY
TUESDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE FRONTOGENESIS AND VERTICAL ASCENT ACROSS
THE TX / LA GULF COAST. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG NUMERICAL WEATHER
PREDICTION GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL BECOMING MORE PROBABLE AS WE MOVE INTO THE MIDWEEK. WPC
HAS OUTLINED A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE HEARTLAND KEEPS THE LATER HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK AHEAD RETAINING AN UNSETTLED NATURE TO THE FORECAST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE WEEK ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SURFACE TROUGHING INTO
THE APPLACHIANS. THIS SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO DEVOLVE WEDNESDAY WITH
GUIDANCE BROADENING THE SOLUTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE OVERALL
TREND IS FOR MORE TURBULENT, PERTURBATIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO
SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS FORECAST IS
CONGRUENT WITH THE RECENT DAILY ISSUED CPC 6-10 DAY OUTLOOKS THAT
HAVE SUGGESTED ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR RAINFALL WITHIN THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
CENLA BEFORE GRADUALLY DEMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. PULSE DRIVEN
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS / STORM STILL LIKELY SOUTH OF HWY 190 TO THE
COAST. VICINITY SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY THROUGH 00Z BEFORE
GRADUALLY DEMINISH. CIGS BORDER MVFR AND WILL LIKELY TEMPO IN AND
OUT AS SCT DECKS AS LOW AS 2000FT CONGEAL TOWARD BKN AND OVC
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
30
MARINE
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN A MODEST INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK. WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
BE EXPECTED OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
TO FOLLOW FROM TUESDAY ON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 73 92 74 92 / 20 30 20 40
LCH 76 89 76 88 / 0 20 10 10
LFT 76 89 76 89 / 10 20 10 20
BPT 77 90 77 89 / 0 20 10 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30
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