018
FXUS64 KLCH 251147
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
647 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TOMORROW WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
PERSISTING GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT TO MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
MONDAY, TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, AND THURSDAY.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ACROSS THE
SE CONUS, WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW, ADVECTING DEEP
GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS, A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE
GULF HIGH WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT MOISTURE LEVELS ARE ALREADY SUFFICIENT AND
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED EVEN THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING,
LARGELY DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED, A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. GIVEN THE MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT, LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO PONDING OR FLASH
FLOODING IN LOW LYING OR POORLY DRAINED AREAS. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
INSTABILITY WANES.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
THE WET PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. A MARGINAL RISK ERO EXISTS
ON MOST DAYS, WITH DAY 2,4,&5 EROS ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF SETX,
CENLA, AND PORTIONS OF SWLA. THE DAY 3 ERO FOCUSES ON INTERIOR
SETX AND CENLA. SIMILARLY, A MARGINAL SEVERE STORM RISK PERSISTS
THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS. THESE RISK AREAS WILL WARRANT CLOSE MONITORING FOR ANY
ADJUSTMENTS IN LOCATION OR SEVERITY.
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE WEEK, ACCOMPANIED BY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. A SURFACE
LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN TEXAS IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE LIFTING NEWRD LATER IN THE PERIOD. THIS
EVOLVING SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND
CLOUD COVERAGE. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
MIXED TAF CATEGORIES AS A RESULT OF LOW VIS AND CIGS. FOG WILL
BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ALONG WITH CIGS LIFTING. A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS AND GUSTS, PARTICULARLY AT KBPT AND KLCH. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LAST MORNING
TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. THAT ACTIVITY AS WELL AS WINDS WILL TAPER,
HOWEVER. FOG AND MVFR CIGS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN A MODEST INCREASE OVER THE DAY.
WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE EXPECTED OVER THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER TO FOLLOW FROM TUESDAY
ON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 93 73 92 70 / 40 30 40 40
LCH 89 76 89 74 / 20 10 10 30
LFT 89 76 89 76 / 30 10 20 20
BPT 89 78 89 74 / 10 10 10 40
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...87
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