295
FXUS64 KLCH 252029
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
329 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TOMORROW WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
PERSISTING GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
MONDAY, TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, AND THURSDAY.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
A DEVOLVING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS IS
ORGANIZING A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS WEST TEXAS. DOWNSTREAM
TROUGHING EXTENDING EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LEADS TO
STATIONARY BOUNDARY NORTH OF LOUISIANA LEADING TO THE CAROLINA
COAST. MEANWHILE LOCALLY, HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. WEAK SUBSIDENCE
INVERSIONS CAN BE NOTED ON RECENT 18Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING, HOWEVER,
THIS WILL NOT PREVENT ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS LEADING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUICK
ACCUMULATING DOWNPOURS. OTHERWISE, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM,
MUGGY WEATHER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT WILL PLAY SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN
THE UNSETTLED WET PATTERN FORECAST THIS WEEK ACROSS THE CWA. WORTH
NOTING, THERE IS A MARGINAL RISKS COVERING INCREASING PORTIONS OF
THE AREA FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL STARTING MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOK.
AS THE SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WHILE
WEAKENING, UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE AREA INCREASES
SUPPORTING MORE ORGANIZED SCATTERED CONVECTION. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
FORECAST TO PERSIST MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD, MAIN CONDITIONAL
LIMITATIONS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BEYOND AND ISOLATED SCALE
PENDS MAINLY INFLUENCE OF THE MARINE LAYER. HI-REST CONVECTIVE
MODELS ARE NOT SOLD ON CARRYING MORE CLUSTERED CONVECTION SOUTH TO
THE COAST LATE MORNING / MID AFTERNOON MONDAY, HOWEVER, PRIOR
PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN SUB-PAR THUS HEDGING OUR FORECAST PACKAGE BASIS
THE MESOSCALE SUPPORT OVER NUMERICAL OUTPUT. BY TUESDAY, POPS
INCREASE, ESPECIALLY FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AS THE STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERS WELL TO THE NORTH OVER THE OZARKS.
SIGNALS FOR PRESSURE HEIGHT FALLS THAT TEND TOWARD THE COAST AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH FILLS OVER TEXAS INDICATE SUPPORT FOR MCS TO
CLUSTERED CONVECTIVE CELLS.
KOWALSKI / 30
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
THE UNSETTLED WET PATTERN CONTINUES WEDNESDAY THROUGH REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
THREAT REMAINING THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN RESPONSIBLE FOR TROUGHING ACROSS TEXAS EVOLVES IN
THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DEEPENING BELOW THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP "HOLD" THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY FROM EXITING SOUTH OF THE TX/LA GULF COAST WITH LOCALLY
REINFORCED SPEED DIVERGENCE ALOFT. WORTH NOTING A MARGINAL RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COVERS MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE
COAST BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHERE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS
INCREASED CONFIDENCE ON MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DURING THIS PERIOD.
HEREAFTER, ON FRIDAY, CONFIDENCE OF THE MEANDERING STATIONARY
BOUNDARY'S INFLUENCE ON LOCAL RAINFALL BECOMES MORE AMBIGUOUS AS
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGEST IT MOVING OFFSHORE AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING
INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND AS BROADER HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD OF THE
HEARTLAND.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE 1ST PERIOD AS
DIURNAL MIXING HAS LIFTED AND THINNED MOST BKN CEILINGS FROM THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED CHANCES OF VICINITY SHOWERS
/ STORMS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WHILE
DECREASING BEFORE THE LOCAL MIDNIGHT HOUR. CIGS AGAIN EXPECTED TO
LOWER OVERNIGHT ALLOWING MVFR SKIES BY EARLY DAWN ACROSS THE CWA.
INCREASING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE POSSIBLE MIDDAY MONDAY-
PARTICULARLY FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN A MODEST INCREASE OVER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY. WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
BE EXPECTED OVER THE MEMORIAL HOLIDAY WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER TO
FOLLOW FROM TUESDAY ON. WORTH NOTING GUIDANCE TRENDS HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND INLAND LOCATIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 73 90 70 86 / 20 40 40 70
LCH 77 88 74 86 / 20 20 30 50
LFT 76 88 76 88 / 20 20 20 50
BPT 78 90 75 88 / 20 20 30 50
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30
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