965
FXUS64 KLCH 261143
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
643 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSETTLED WEATHER STARTING TODAY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE
DURATION OF THE WORK WEEK.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
MONDAY, TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND FRIDAY.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY,
TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ARE THE
PRIMARY THREATS, TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA, WHICH, IN
COMBINATION WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES, AND
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WILL SUPPORT DAILY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
CONVECTION.
CURRENTLY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA, PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK BOUNDARY
ORIENTED FROM NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
ADDITIONALLY, A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN
TEXAS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
STRONGER AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION.
OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS, THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER ABOUT
THE AREA BEFORE BEGINNING A GRADUAL SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION INTO THE
MIDWEEK PERIOD. GIVEN THE PWAT VALUES EXCEEDING THE 90TH
PERCENTILE, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS MAY
RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER AND FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN
LOW-LYING OR POORLY DRAINED AREAS.
FURTHERMORE, THERE IS AN ONGOING THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE
REGION IS CURRENTLY UNDER A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK (PER WPC/SPC
GUIDANCE) FOR BOTH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS HOWEVER TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL STRETCH FROM THE TEXAS COAST EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH
MIDWEEK, EVENTUALLY BECOMING STATIONARY AGAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST
BY FRIDAY AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, CONTINUING THE UNSETTLED PATTERN ESTABLISHED
IN THE SHORT TERM. THE PRIMARY CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE RAIN, AS
ANTECEDENT RAINFALL WILL REDUCE THE CAPACITY OF SOILS TO ABSORB
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST ERO FROM WPC HIGHLIGHTS A DAY 4
RISK OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH A DAY 5 RISK FOCUSED ON
THE COASTAL PARISHES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN
FUTURE UPDATES.
AT THIS TIME, THERE IS NO CATEGORICAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OUTLINED
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER, FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, SO THIS TOO
WARRANTS CONTINUED MONITORING.
MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT LATE IN THE PERIOD
WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION AND PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
SHOULD THE TROUGH PUSH MORE EASTWARD, SOME CLEARING COULD OCCUR LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, WITH THE SURFACE FRONT LIKELY LINGERING
NEAR THE COAST, ISOLATED POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY BE MODULATED BY RAIN AND CLOUD COVER.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
QUIET CONDITIONS ONGOING AFTER A FEW STORMS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA
EARLIER IN THE MORNING. THIS LULL IN ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION AS A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER PARTS OF E TX AND N LA MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE CWA LATER IN THE DAY. WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN A MODEST INCREASE OVER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE
EXPECTED OVER THE MEMORIAL HOLIDAY WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER TO
FOLLOW FROM TUESDAY ON. WORTH NOTING GUIDANCE TRENDS HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND INLAND LOCATIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 90 70 87 69 / 50 40 80 30
LCH 88 75 87 73 / 20 40 50 30
LFT 88 75 88 74 / 30 30 50 30
BPT 89 75 88 74 / 20 40 50 30
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...87
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