050
FXUS64 KLCH 262016
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
316 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS / STORMS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FOR THE DURATION OF THE WORK WEEK.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
MONDAY, TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND FRIDAY.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS
EVENING, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS; TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK AHEAD ASSOCIATED WITH A STAGNANT FRONTAL
PATTERN FORECAST TO MEANDER AROUND THE CWA THROUGH FRIDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE COLORADO
ROCKIES IS SLOWLY DEVOLVING WHILE YIELDING IT'S RELATIVE
VORTICITY AND GRADUALLY MERGING WITH A SECONDARY WAVE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN CLOSE OFF, LEAVING AN
ELONGATED SWATH OF LOWER PRESSURE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEEK. LOCALLY, THIS EVOLUTION RESULTS
IN UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS THE BROADER TROUGH RETAINS A
NEGATIVE TILT TO PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW.
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY LOOSELY SET UP AROUND THE ARKLATEX REGION
WILL SLOWLY ACQUIRE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT USHERING
INCREASING CAA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE REMAINING NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. PROGRESSING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, GUIDANCE BRINGS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE TX / LA COAST. THIS PERIOD LATE TOMORROW
NIGHT THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY HAS THE GREATEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
OVER THE CWA AND IS MOST FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL- WHICH CURRENTLY RANGES SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST FROM
A SLIGHT TO MARGINAL RISK.
KOWALSKI / 30
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
BY THURSDAY, GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN STALLED ALONG THE NW GULF COAST. HEREAFTER, SPECIFIC
DETAILS, AMOUNTS, AND TIMING OF EACH ROUND OF POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS / STORMS BECOMES MORE NEBULOUS. MOREOVER, THE UNSETTLED
NATURE OF THE PATTERN RETAINS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, IT IS WORTH NOTING, CONFIDENCE HAS REMAINED
THAT THE FORECAST WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL IN RAINFALL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS WILL BUILD TOWARD THE LOW TO
MID 80'S. FEW INTERIOR LOCATIONS MAY SEE TEMPERATURES PEAK CLOSER
TO 90°F WHERE POCKETS OF STABLE, LESS CLOUDY CONDITIONS OCCUR
DURING PEAK HEATING.
OUR TROUBLESOME FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LATER FORECAST TO MOVE
OFFSHORE BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. WHILE NOT COMPLETELY
ELIMINATED FROM THE FORECAST, POPS DECREASE DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WHILE HIGHS CREEP TOWARD THE LOW 90'S AGAIN.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL LA AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF SETX. STRATIFORM PRECIP WILL
REMAIN ACROSS AEX NEXT FEW HOURS SPREADING SOUTH BEHIND STRONGER
CONVECTION TOWARD THE COAST. BRIEF IFR REDUCTIONS IN HEAVIER TS
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH STRONG VRB GUSTS AS CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES
SOUTH AND EAST. OTHERWISE SKIES TO JUMP IN AND OUT MVFR NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH LOW BKN / SCT CEILINGS THROUGH DUSK.
30
MARINE
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
WINDS AND SEAS WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY ONSHORE COMPONENTS THROUGHOUT
THE WORK WEEK. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UNSETTLED WET PATTERN TO FOLLOW FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
WORTH NOTING GUIDANCE TRENDS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION DOWN TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND INLAND LOCATIONS. THAT SAID, PERIODIC GUSTY
W-NW OUTFLOWS ARE POSSIBLE WHEN CLUSTERED THUNDERSHOWERS DESCEND
THE LAKES AND OFFSHORE WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 70 88 69 86 / 50 80 30 70
LCH 74 89 74 85 / 30 50 20 70
LFT 75 89 74 85 / 30 50 20 80
BPT 75 89 74 86 / 40 50 20 70
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30
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