458
FXUS64 KLCH 262327
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
627 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS / STORMS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FOR THE DURATION OF THE WORK WEEK.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
MONDAY, TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND FRIDAY.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS
EVENING, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS; TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK AHEAD ASSOCIATED WITH A STAGNANT FRONTAL
PATTERN FORECAST TO MEANDER AROUND THE CWA THROUGH FRIDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE COLORADO
ROCKIES IS SLOWLY DEVOLVING WHILE YIELDING IT'S RELATIVE
VORTICITY AND GRADUALLY MERGING WITH A SECONDARY WAVE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN CLOSE OFF, LEAVING AN
ELONGATED SWATH OF LOWER PRESSURE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEEK. LOCALLY, THIS EVOLUTION RESULTS
IN UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS THE BROADER TROUGH RETAINS A
NEGATIVE TILT TO PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW.
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY LOOSELY SET UP AROUND THE ARKLATEX REGION
WILL SLOWLY ACQUIRE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT USHERING
INCREASING CAA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE REMAINING NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. PROGRESSING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, GUIDANCE BRINGS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE TX / LA COAST. THIS PERIOD LATE TOMORROW
NIGHT THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY HAS THE GREATEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
OVER THE CWA AND IS MOST FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL- WHICH CURRENTLY RANGES SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST FROM
A SLIGHT TO MARGINAL RISK.
KOWALSKI / 30
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
BY THURSDAY, GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN STALLED ALONG THE NW GULF COAST. HEREAFTER, SPECIFIC
DETAILS, AMOUNTS, AND TIMING OF EACH ROUND OF POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS / STORMS BECOMES MORE NEBULOUS. MOREOVER, THE UNSETTLED
NATURE OF THE PATTERN RETAINS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, IT IS WORTH NOTING, CONFIDENCE HAS REMAINED
THAT THE FORECAST WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL IN RAINFALL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS WILL BUILD TOWARD THE LOW TO
MID 80'S. FEW INTERIOR LOCATIONS MAY SEE TEMPERATURES PEAK CLOSER
TO 90°F WHERE POCKETS OF STABLE, LESS CLOUDY CONDITIONS OCCUR
DURING PEAK HEATING.
OUR TROUBLESOME FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LATER FORECAST TO MOVE
OFFSHORE BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. WHILE NOT COMPLETELY
ELIMINATED FROM THE FORECAST, POPS DECREASE DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WHILE HIGHS CREEP TOWARD THE LOW 90'S AGAIN.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, AND SHOULD LARGELY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT, BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS
CONTINUE. FROM NEAR MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD INTO THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW, CIGS LOWER TO MVFR, WHILE
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
REDUCING VIS AND CONTAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS. TIMED THIS LINE OUT AS BEST AS POSSIBLE WITH THE INCLUSION
OF PROB30 GROUPS AT ALL SITES. BEHIND THE INITIAL LINE, SOME LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW, WHILE CIGS RETURN TO VFR. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.
17
MARINE
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
WINDS AND SEAS WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY ONSHORE COMPONENTS THROUGHOUT
THE WORK WEEK. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UNSETTLED WET PATTERN TO FOLLOW FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
WORTH NOTING GUIDANCE TRENDS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION DOWN TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND INLAND LOCATIONS. THAT SAID, PERIODIC GUSTY
W-NW OUTFLOWS ARE POSSIBLE WHEN CLUSTERED THUNDERSHOWERS DESCEND
THE LAKES AND OFFSHORE WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 70 88 69 86 / 50 80 30 70
LCH 74 89 74 85 / 30 50 20 70
LFT 75 89 74 85 / 30 50 20 80
BPT 75 89 74 86 / 40 50 20 70
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...17
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page