264
FXUS64 KLCH 270752
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
252 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS / STORMS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FOR THE DURATION OF THE WORK WEEK.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
MONDAY, TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND FRIDAY.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS
EVENING, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS; TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
A LINE OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING SETX, ENTERING W LA,
WITH EMBEDDED STORMS PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS
REPORTED BY ADJACENT CWAS. THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK PER THE SWODY1, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL IDENTIFIED AS THE PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER, GIVEN
OBSERVATIONS OF A FEW AREAS OF BROAD LOW LEVEL ROTATION OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS, A TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE ENTIRELY DISCOUNTED
OVERNIGHT.
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE ALSO INCREASING, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS
EXPERIENCING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. WHILE THE FORWARD
MOTION OF THE PRIMARY LINE SHOULD MITIGATE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD
RISK, ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE LINE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SATURATED SOILS, POTENTIALLY ENHANCING
LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS.
HIRES GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CONVECTIVE LINE WILL EXIT THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. IN ITS WAKE,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED BY THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, THOUGH COMPLETE CESSATION OF
PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY, PROVIDING RENEWED FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INITIATE LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY
INTERACTS WITH DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS
ALOFT.
THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK AS
THE BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION AND SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRANSIT THE BROADER SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE OF THESE FEATURES; HOWEVER, THERE IS INCREASING SUPPORT
FOR DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND/OR
OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE THIS MAY LEAD TO A MODEST REDUCTION IN
POPS, WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
WILL WARRANT THE CONTINUATION OF LOW END RAIN CHANCES INTO THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
A N/S ORIENTATE LINE OF STORMS IS PUSHING ACROSS SE TX AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS,
EVENTUALLY EXITING TO OUR EAST LATER THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
LINE, LIGHT WINDS AND A MIXTURE OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE. NEAR/WITHIN THE LINE, STRONG GUSTY WINDS, TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL ;LEADING TO REDUCED VIS, LOWER CIGS, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE. TIMED THE LINE OUT AT EACH SITE
WITH TEMPO GROUPS AS BEST AS POSSIBLE, WITH FURTHER AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLY BEING REQUIRED LATER THIS MORNING AS WE SEE HOW THESE
STORMS PROGRESS. BEHIND THE LINE, LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE FOR A BIT, FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
WINDS AND SEAS WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY ONSHORE COMPONENTS THROUGHOUT
THE WORK WEEK. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UNSETTLED WET PATTERN TO FOLLOW FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
WORTH NOTING GUIDANCE TRENDS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION DOWN TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND INLAND LOCATIONS. THAT SAID, PERIODIC GUSTY
W-NW OUTFLOWS ARE POSSIBLE WHEN CLUSTERED THUNDERSHOWERS DESCEND
THE LAKES AND OFFSHORE WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 85 69 85 68 / 80 30 70 40
LCH 88 73 84 71 / 60 20 80 30
LFT 88 73 85 72 / 70 30 80 40
BPT 89 74 85 73 / 50 30 80 30
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...17
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page