442
FXUS64 KLCH 271720
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1220 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS / STORMS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FOR THE DURATION OF THE WORK WEEK.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS; TORNADOES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 954 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
AIR MASS LOOKS TO HAVE BEEN WORKED OVER FROM THE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX EARLIER THIS MORNING WITH JUST SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY. ONCE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCUR AND DAYTIME HEATING A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE UPDATED THE POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HI-RES
GUIDANCE.
RUA
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
A LINE OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING SETX, ENTERING W LA,
WITH EMBEDDED STORMS PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS
REPORTED BY ADJACENT CWAS. THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK PER THE SWODY1, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL IDENTIFIED AS THE PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER, GIVEN
OBSERVATIONS OF A FEW AREAS OF BROAD LOW LEVEL ROTATION OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS, A TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE ENTIRELY DISCOUNTED
OVERNIGHT.
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE ALSO INCREASING, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS
EXPERIENCING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. WHILE THE FORWARD
MOTION OF THE PRIMARY LINE SHOULD MITIGATE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD
RISK, ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE LINE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SATURATED SOILS, POTENTIALLY ENHANCING
LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS.
HIRES GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CONVECTIVE LINE WILL EXIT THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. IN ITS WAKE,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED BY THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, THOUGH COMPLETE CESSATION OF
PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY, PROVIDING RENEWED FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INITIATE LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY
INTERACTS WITH DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS
ALOFT.
THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK AS
THE BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION AND SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRANSIT THE BROADER SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE OF THESE FEATURES; HOWEVER, THERE IS INCREASING SUPPORT
FOR DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND/OR
OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE THIS MAY LEAD TO A MODEST REDUCTION IN
POPS, WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
WILL WARRANT THE CONTINUATION OF LOW END RAIN CHANCES INTO THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
MAINLY STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN WAKE OF LAST
NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING CONVECTION. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT, SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 28/09Z TO 28/14Z.
LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE AFTER THIS
TAF PACKAGE.
RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
WINDS AND SEAS WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY ONSHORE COMPONENTS THROUGHOUT
THE WORK WEEK. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UNSETTLED WET PATTERN TO FOLLOW FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
WORTH NOTING GUIDANCE TRENDS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION DOWN TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND INLAND LOCATIONS. THAT SAID, PERIODIC GUSTY
W-NW OUTFLOWS ARE POSSIBLE WHEN CLUSTERED THUNDERSHOWERS DESCEND
THE LAKES AND OFFSHORE WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 85 69 85 68 / 80 30 70 40
LCH 88 73 84 71 / 60 20 80 30
LFT 88 73 85 72 / 70 30 80 40
BPT 89 74 85 73 / 50 30 80 30
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...07
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