266
FXUS64 KLCH 272322
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
622 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES COMBINES WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
- THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
- HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING DRIER WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
AIR MASS HAS BEEN WORKED OVER AS SEEN ON THE 27/18Z UPPER AIR
SOUNDING FROM KLCH, SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
WITH RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVERHEAD AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY
STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA, WILL NEED
TO LOOK FOR ANY DISTURBANCES COMING OUT OF TEXAS THAT PRODUCE
COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND RIDE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW, INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT OVER
WEST TEXAS AND NORTHERN OLD MEXICO WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY MORNING.
ENERGY WITH THIS SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED BY THE GUIDANCE TO REACH
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES IF IT IS CLOSER TO NOON OR LATER IN THE DAY.
WITH THE SHORT WAVE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY,
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ABLE TO BUILD WITH DAYTIME HEATING WITH
PROGS SHOWING MUCAPE OVER 3000 J/KG.
ALSO, A PLUME OF HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE WITH PWAT ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE
AND NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES TO GO ALONG WITH 100H-50H MEAN LAYER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY ABOVE 80 PERCENT. THEREFORE, SOME EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WITH HIGH RAIN RATES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WITH THAT, A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 4) OR BETWEEN A 5 TO 14 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SEEING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THAT MAY LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING.
SHEAR IN THE LOW LAYERS LOOKS RATHER WEAK, HOWEVER WITH THE HIGH
INSTABILITY, DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, DOWNDRAFT CAPE, AND MID
LEVEL SHEAR, A FEW STORMS WITHIN THE CLUSTERS MAY PULSE UP TO
BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH DOWNBURST WINDS AND/OR HAIL.
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGING AROUND, AND AGAIN A MOIST AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS, RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY, WITH
AGAIN THE BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
RUA
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
A FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLED ACROSS THE GULF SOUTH WILL GET PUSHED
DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS ON FRIDAY AS A UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE EAST COAST HELPING TO INCREASE THE
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EARLY IN THE DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS WILL BUILD ON DOWN
ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN. THIS WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES
AND PROVIDE MORE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY VALUES FOR THE WEEKEND.
RUA
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
VFR CIGS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. AROUND 09Z, PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION, AFFECT THE TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE. FOG THEN BURNS OFF
AROUND 13-14Z, WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THEREAFTER.
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, OUR NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO BPT AROUND LUNCH TIME OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER
AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VIS/CIGS WILL FALL WITHIN
THESE STORMS, AND GUSTY WINDS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS
THEN IMPROVE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
17
MARINE
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGING AROUND NORTH
OF THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW A LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH LOW SEAS. A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO FRIDAY.
DURING FRIDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIP DOWN INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE
PLAINS. THIS WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS INTO
THE WEEKEND.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
PROVIDING LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN.
RUA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 68 84 66 84 / 20 70 60 70
LCH 72 86 71 85 / 20 80 50 70
LFT 72 86 71 84 / 30 80 50 80
BPT 73 86 72 87 / 10 80 50 70
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...17
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