853
FXUS64 KLCH 280847
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
347 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES COMBINES WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
- THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
- HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING DRIER WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
CURRENTLY THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS BISECTING THE CWA WITH NEAR
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EJECTING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE BOUNDARY, AND ELEVATED PWATS. MORE OF
THE SAME CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS. BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW THERE IS A SLIGHT
TO MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER WITH
WIND AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
GULF COAST. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. TIMING IS STILL UP IN THE AIR, HOWEVER THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS WILL CLEAR, ENDING ASSOCIATED
PRECIP, IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND AND GOING INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK,
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH OVER THE GULF AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO TX. THIS WILL
BRING WELCOMED DRY NORTHERLY AIR TO THE SURFACE. ALOFT, A TROUGH
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EAST COAST, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ALSO ALOFT.
SUNDAY, THE RIDGE WILL STRETCH EASTWARD OVER THE GULF COAST AND
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN. WIDELY ISOLATED POPS RETURN TO
THE FORECAST THEREAFTER INTO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A
WEAK STORM COMPLEX POSSIBLY DIVING SOUTH OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
MAINLY CALM WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE.
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND THE 09Z HOUR
THROUGH ROUGHLY 12-13Z, BUT GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN A BIT ON
INDICATIONS OF WIDESPREAD FOG. TOMORROW, SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED TO SPREAD WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE IS TIMING, WITH GUIDANCE NOW BRINGING THE
BULK OF THESE STORMS ACROSS LATER IN THE DAY INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AWAY FROM CONVECTION, VFR CIGS/VIS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
17
MARINE
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ALLOWING FOR
DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS UNTIL THIS WEEKEND WHEN A HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH OVER THE GULF. GOING INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK, THE
RIDGE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW
AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 88 67 85 69 / 50 60 80 20
LCH 88 70 85 73 / 70 50 80 10
LFT 88 72 84 73 / 70 60 90 20
BPT 86 72 86 73 / 80 50 70 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...17
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