042
FXUS64 KLCH 290505
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1205 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AND MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
COMBINES WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
- THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
- HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING DRIER WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS MOSTLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AFTER THIS ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT
ROUND SHOULD PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ONE
FINAL ROUND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN FRONT
TO THE SOUTH.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND AND GOING INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK,
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH OVER THE GULF AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO TX. THIS WILL
BRING WELCOMED DRY NORTHERLY AIR TO THE SURFACE. ALOFT, A TROUGH
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EAST COAST, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ALSO ALOFT.
SUNDAY, THE RIDGE WILL STRETCH EASTWARD OVER THE GULF COAST AND
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN. WIDELY ISOLATED POPS RETURN TO
THE FORECAST THEREAFTER INTO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A
WEAK STORM COMPLEX POSSIBLY DIVING SOUTH OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK THEIR WAY INLAND FROM THE
GULF POTENTIALLY IMPACTING ARA AND LFT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
AWAY FROM THIS ACTIVITY, CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO BOUNCE AROUND
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE MORNING WITH AN INTERMITTENT LIFR
CEILING EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL INITIALIZE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM AROUND SUNRISE
THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF VISIBILITY REDUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO WANE BY EARLY
EVENING WITH MOST STORMS EXPECTED TO BE OVER BY SUNSET.
AWAY FROM STORMS, LIGHT, VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ALLOWING FOR
DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS UNTIL THIS WEEKEND WHEN A HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH OVER THE GULF. GOING INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK, THE
RIDGE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW
AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 88 66 84 69 / 60 70 70 20
LCH 88 70 85 73 / 70 60 70 10
LFT 88 71 84 73 / 60 70 80 10
BPT 86 71 88 74 / 80 40 70 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM....27
AVIATION...66
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