214
FXUS64 KLCH 291722
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1222 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE TODAY.
- THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL COME TO AN END ON FRIDAY AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
- HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING DRIER WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
ISSUED AN UPDATE TO REDUCE THE POPS TODAY AND FRESHEN THE GRIDS
BASED ON LATEST DATA.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE, SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF
CENLA AND DOWN TO THE COAST. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE,
WITH QUIET WEATHER LASTING BUT A FEW HOURS BEFORE WE SEE MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE IN.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS STILL PROJECTED TO RIDE DOWN INTO AND
THROUGH THE AREA ALLOWING FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS UNTIL THIS
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DESCEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GULF FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW, THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS, WITH WIND AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
THREATS. WHILE THERE IS NO RAINFALL THREAT FOR TOMORROW, THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST UNTIL FROPA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE GULF ON SATURDAY WITH A
DECREASE IN SHOWERS. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING IN
WELCOMED DRIER AIR, WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S THAT DAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
RELATIVELY BENIGN / RUN OF THE MILL WEATHER TO PERSIST FROM THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMS WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF DAILY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS.
THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT US DRY NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE SHORT
TERM UNFORTUNATELY WILL BE MOVING OFF. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A MODEST UPTICK IN MOISTURE. WITH THAT,
DEWPOINTS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE 60S TO 70S SO IT WILL FEEL QUITE
HUMID. FORTUNATELY ALOFT THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF AS A WEAK RIDGE FLATTENS OVER TX AND
GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD OVER US.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
THE AREA OF GREATEST RISK FOR TSRA THIS AFTERNOON IS AROUND THE
ACADIANA TERMINALS. OTHERWISE SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE KAEX TERMINAL BEFORE A COLD FRONT STARTS TO
SLIDE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ALLOWING FOR
DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS UNTIL THIS WEEKEND WHEN A HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH OVER THE GULF. GOING INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK, THE
RIDGE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW
AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 86 69 85 62 / 30 10 30 0
LCH 87 74 88 68 / 20 0 40 0
LFT 84 72 87 67 / 60 0 50 10
BPT 88 74 89 69 / 20 0 40 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...27
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