286
FXUS64 KLCH 291951 CCA
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
251 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL COME TO AN END ON FRIDAY AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
- HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING DRIER WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO
CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET. STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST ALONG THE BOUNDARIES UNTIL SUNSET, HOWEVER
PROBABILITIES ARE LOW. AFTER SUNSET NO ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED UNTIL
TOMORROW AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH.
HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN AND SATURDAY LOOKS
RAIN FREE, BUT WARM.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TRIES TO DOMINATE SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS LOOK TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY STARTING AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY/MONDAY BUT INCREASING SLIGHTLY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
THE AREA OF GREATEST RISK FOR TSRA THIS AFTERNOON IS AROUND THE
ACADIANA TERMINALS. OTHERWISE SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE KAEX TERMINAL BEFORE A COLD FRONT STARTS TO
SLIDE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH A
COOL FRONT. THIS WEEKEND WHEN A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER
THE GULF. GOING INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL EXPAND
EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 70 85 62 85 / 10 30 0 0
LCH 74 88 68 85 / 0 40 0 10
LFT 73 88 67 84 / 0 50 10 10
BPT 73 89 69 88 / 0 40 10 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM....27
AVIATION...27
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