163
FXUS64 KLCH 241111
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
611 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A SURGE OF MOISTURE AROUND AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ABOUT HIGH RAIN CHANCES TODAY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH SOME LOCALLY
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.
- THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND TYPICAL SUMMER HEAT
WITH MAX AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 102 TO 107 DEGREES.
- BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
AGAIN AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS AND DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
ON GOING NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ALREADY ON GOING
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST UNTIL SUNRISE.
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST BRINGING RATHER MOIST
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DURING THE PERIOD WITH
SUMMERTIME MUGGY CONDITIONS.
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND SURGE OF MOISTURE IN THE
EASTERLIES AROUND THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA BY AFTERNOON. PWAT VALUES ARE DEPICTED TO BE OVER 2 INCHES
AND AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMO WITH THIS SURGE ON THE
GOES DATA. GUIDANCE AGREES WITH INCREASING THE PWAT VALUES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO OVER 2 INCHES WITH MEAN LAYER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OVER 80 PERCENT.
WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RATHER LITTLE INHIBITION,
DAYTIME HEATING AND SEABREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ENHANCED THIS AFTERNOON AND LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF COVERAGE
THAN NORMAL. WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE VALUES THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LOCAL TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE DISTURBANCE AND MOISTURE SURGE WILL MOVE WESTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY
EXPANDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. THEREFORE, RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE A LITTLE LOWER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH AGAIN ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAVING A GREATER CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER TO GO ALONG WITH THE
HUMID CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME THE MAX AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA AND
RANGE FROM 102F TO 107F DEGREES.
RUA
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
THE SURFACE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
THAT WILL ALLOW A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS TO KEEP THE
SITUATION ON THE MUGGY AND HUMID SIDE.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT MORE TO THE
WEST. THEREFORE, LOOKS LIKE DAILY CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WITH THE GREATER
CHANCE FOR THE CONVECTION OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH LESS INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN PRETTY TYPICAL FOR SUMMER, SO IT WILL BE
HOT AND MUGGY.
RUA
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING
ABOUT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY
OVER BEAUMONT AREA ALREADY, SO WILL START OFF KBPT WITH VCTS.
A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER
24/16Z. PROB30 GROUPS AT ALL BUT KAEX TO HANDLE THE EXPECTED
ENHANCED SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
IN THE STORMS. AWAY FROM THE STORMS EXPECTED VFR CONDITIONS.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER 25/02Z.
RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 153 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
A SUBTROPICAL SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
WILL RIDGE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE WEEK WITH MAINLY
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THE RESULT WITH RELATIVELY LOW SEAS.
A SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY,
WITH A DAILY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THIS
WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR THE STORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 150 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
A SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP
INCREASE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE SOME ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN HUMID WITH AFTERNOON MIN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 50 PERCENT. AWAY FROM ANY STORMS, WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 93 72 94 73 / 40 20 20 10
LCH 91 74 90 74 / 70 30 50 10
LFT 90 73 92 74 / 70 20 40 10
BPT 90 75 89 75 / 70 40 60 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07
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