913
FXUS64 KLCH 242009
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
309 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND TYPICAL SUMMER HEAT
WITH MAX AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 102 TO 107 DEGREES.
- BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
AGAIN AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS AND DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS REGION DOMINATES THE SERN CONUS TODAY, PROVIDING A
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. A STEADY STREAM OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE SWRN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE HAS ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTH LA THIS
AFTERNOON. 18Z LCH SOUNDING SHOWS A PWAT OF 1.90", WHICH IS JUST
ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE ACCORDING TO SPC CLIMO. SO WHILE NOT AN
ASTRONOMICAL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE, THERE IS STILL PLENTY AVAILABLE
FOR THESE STORMS TO WORK WITH. IN ADDITION, THE 18Z SOUNDING
DEPICTS MU CAPE OF 3790 J/KG, INDICATING PLENTY OF INSTABILITY FOR
THESE STORMS TO WORK WITH. AS A RESULT, DON'T SEE ANY REASON WHY
CONVECTION WON'T CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS WE MOVE THROUGH PEAK HEATING HOURS. WHILE
MOST OF THESE STORMS SHOULD JUST BE RUN OF THE MILL SUMMERTIME
CONVECTION, SOME OF COULD PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTS AROUND 30-40 MPH.
CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER DOWN WITH SUNSET HOWEVER, SOME ISOLATED
ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TOMORROW, SURFACE/MID-LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO EXPAND EASTWARD A
BIT, TAMPERING DOWN RAIN CHANCES ACROSS CENLA AND THE ATCHAFALAYA
BASIN. THIS MAY ALLOW PARTS OF CENLA TO REACH INTO THE MID/UPPER
90S TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FOR SW LA AND SE TX, THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE WILL BE A BIT LESS AND ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS THE AXIS OF ELEVATED MOISTURE GETS
SHUNTED WESTWARD TOWARDS HOUSTON/BEAUMONT. COVERAGE MAY BE
SLIGHTLY LESS THAN TODAY, BUT STILL WOULD EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. BY THURSDAY THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE/MID-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE A BIT STRONGER AREA-WIDE. STILL DON'T EXPECT THIS
TO BRING AN END TO AFTERNOON DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BUT IT
SHOULD TAPER DOWN COVERAGE QUITE A BIT, ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO
TODAY.
17
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
MID-LEVEL RIDGING BEINGS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT WESTWARD FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND, WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS BACK TOWARDS THE
CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH MOVE EAST, IT
WILL MAINTAIN A STEADY SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA,
KEEPING AN INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND IN TURN WARM, HUMID
CONDITIONS IN PLACE EACH DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DAILY CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH POPS INCREASING EACH DAY FRI THROUGH
MON. INITIALLY, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS ACADIANA WHERE
THE RIDGE WILL FIRST LOOSEN ITS HOLD. BY SUNDAY, HIGHER POPS
EXPAND AREA-WIDE, WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-190 WHERE THE SEABREEZE/MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL
HAVE MORE OF AN INFLUENCE ON DAILY CONVECTION. WHILE IT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND MUGGY, DAILY ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP US BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
17
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SCATTERED SEABREEZE
DRIVEN CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10
OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO, AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
LIKELY OCCASIONALLY PASS OVER THE I-10 TAF SITES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY CAUSING BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VIS/CIGS. AEX MAY
START TO SEE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL
HOWEVER, CHANCES ARE A BIT LESS. THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT,
CONVECTION WANES AND WINDS RELAX. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL INTO
TOMORROW MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
A SUBTROPICAL SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
WILL RIDGE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE WEEK WITH MAINLY
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND RELATIVELY LOW SEAS. A DAILY
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR THE STORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 71 94 73 94 / 20 10 0 20
LCH 74 90 74 91 / 40 50 10 30
LFT 74 92 74 93 / 20 40 10 50
BPT 75 90 75 91 / 50 60 10 30
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17
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