380
FXUS64 KLCH 251719
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1219 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO THE WEST TODAY AND
THIS WILL PUSH BETTER MOISTURE VALUES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHERE
THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FOUND.
- THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE NEAR THE AREA ON THURSDAY HELPING
TO BRING ABOUT SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA WHILE THE TYPICAL SUMMER HEAT PERSISTS WITH MAX AFTERNOON
HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES.
- BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST. EXPECT
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER WITH A DAILY CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO GO ALONG WITH THE USUAL
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS REGION THIS EARLY MORNING. FLOW AROUND THIS RIDGE IS
PUSHING NOCTURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT HAS DEVELOPED INTO THE
LOWER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THAT AREA UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. SOME CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
VERY HIGH MOISTURE WAS NOTED OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE 25/00Z UPPER AIR SOUND FROM KLCH SHOWING
PWAT VALUE AT 2.19 INCHES WHICH IS WELL OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE.
MEANWHILE, GOES DATA AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS TO THE EAST SHOWS
LOWER MOISTURE VALUES WITH PWAT IN THE 1.6-1.7 INCH RANGE.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE AND HELP PUSH THE HIGHER
MOISTURE VALUES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TODAY, BESIDES THE NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY THIS
MORNING SOME REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY OCCUR WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS DUE TO PWAT VALUES EXPECTED TO BE OVER 2 INCHES AND LAYER
MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OVER 70 PERCENT.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO THE WEST AND HAVE LIKELY
ITS STRONGEST INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SLIGHT
LOWER RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE HIGHER ALSO ON
THURSDAY, HOWEVER, MAX AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS ARE PROJECTED
IN THE 100F TO 105F RANGE WHICH IS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER TEXAS, SOME
BETTER MOISTURE WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO MOVE INTO LOWER ACADIANA AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND THEREFORE, AGAIN A
BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING THE MAINLY AFTERNOON DIURNAL AND SEABREEZE
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS.
RUA
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
SURFACE WILL MAINTAIN ITS RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
EAST AND THIS WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW AND
DECENT MOISTURE WITH HIGH HUMIDITY.
THEREFORE, AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE
MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHERE DOES UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SET UP AND
HOW STRONG WILL IT BE. FOR THE MOST PART THE GUIDANCE SHOWS
RIDGING TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THEREFORE,
THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING DIURNAL AND SEABREEZE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR ALONG THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN AND ACADIANA, MEANWHILE LOWER
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT IS EXPECTED WITH DAILY AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX VALUES AWAY FROM THE STORMS IN THE 100F TO 107F RANGE.
RUA
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
LIGHT ESE/SE WINDS AND MAINLY VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE NEAR BPT AND
LCH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME HOURS, WHILE FURTHER
EAST SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY FIRE OFF AROUND ACADIANA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER, CHANCES ARE LOWER. AS CONVECTION PASSES
OVER THE TERMINALS REDUCTIONS IN VIS/CIGS AND OCCASIONAL WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
17
MARINE
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FROM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT MAINLY LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE TO GO ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LOW SEAS.
THERE WILL BE A DAILY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FOUND OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN
CHANCE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN. MEANWHILE, LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES STAYING
NEAR OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT FOR CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND UPPER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS, AND NEAR OR ABOVE 60 PERCENT ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR TO THE
COAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 72 94 73 93 / 10 10 10 20
LCH 74 91 75 91 / 10 20 10 30
LFT 74 93 74 91 / 10 20 20 50
BPT 75 91 75 91 / 10 20 0 30
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...17
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