368
FXUS64 KLCH 260503
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1203 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE NEAR THE AREA ON THURSDAY HELPING
TO BRING ABOUT SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA WHILE THE TYPICAL SUMMER HEAT PERSISTS WITH MAX AFTERNOON
HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES.
- BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST. EXPECT
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER WITH A DAILY CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO GO ALONG WITH THE USUAL
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
SURFACE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW A VERTICALLY STACKED RIDGE
CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/TN VALLEY, WITH THE SWRN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE NUDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION,
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A NICE SWATH OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST TX. THIS SET UP HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SE TX AND SW LA THIS
AFTERNOON, WHILE FURTHER WEST MAINLY DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE
NOTED THANKS TO RIDGING ALOFT. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ABLE TO BREAK OUT BENEATH THE RIDGE
ACROSS ACADIANA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE
BULK OF THIS AFTERNOON'S CONVECTION WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA. AS PER USUAL, CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF NEAR
SUNSET, WITH DRY, WARM, AND MUGGY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TOMORROW, RIDGING WILL EXPAND WEST TOWARDS TX, PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL CAPPING ALOFT AND KEEPING AFTERNOON CONVECTION LARGELY
IN CHECK. STILL KEPT SMALL POPS IN THE FORECAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON (10-20%), AS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY STILL BE
ABLE TO BREAK OUT BENEATH THE CAP THROUGH PEAK HEATING HOURS.
HOWEVER, MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD STAY DRY TOMORROW, WHICH WILL
OF COURSE ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE LOW TO MID-90S
AREAWIDE. HEAT INDICES SHOULD LARGELY PEAK IN THE 100-105 RANGE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WHICH IS BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
BY FRIDAY, RIDGING BECOME ESTABLISHED MORE TOWARDS THE ARK-LA-TX
REGION, WHILE A WEAKNESS/TROUGH LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALOFT NEAR
FL/GA. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE BRIEF DRY PERIOD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH A RETURN OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON
CONVECTION EXPECTED. BEST RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY LOOK TO SET UP
ACROSS SE LA AND THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN, WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
CHANCES EXPECTED FOR SE TX/SW LA/CENLA. SOME CONVECTION MAY BEGIN
TO FIRE UP THROUGHOUT FRIDAY MORNING, WITH COVERAGE PEAKING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DURING MAX HEATING HOURS.
17
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS SITUATED BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING TO THE
WEST AND TROUGHING TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY, RESULTING IN PRETTY
MUCH A REPEAT OF FRIDAY'S WEATHER AS WE BEGIN THE WEEKEND. ONCE
AGAIN, EXPECT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO FIRE UP THROUGH THE
MORNING, PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST, EXPANDING IN COVERAGE BY
THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS ACADIANA/THE ATCHAFALAYA WHERE
THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE A BIT GREATER. IN ADDITION,
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, SURFACE RIDGING WILL
REMAIN OVER THE SERN US, KEEPING AN ONSHORE FLOW ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND A RESULTANT INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND HIGH HUMIDITY EACH DAY.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES AND WARM, HUMID
CONDITIONS CONTINUE. NBM BRINGS IN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AREA-WIDE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD HOWEVER, WE COULD SEE THIS CHANCE SOMEWHAT
DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
INITIALLY BE TO OUR EAST. AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THIS FEATURE WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE POPS LEVEL OUT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, WE STILL WON'T BE WITHOUT OUR
TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY, AS IT IS SUMMER
AFTER ALL.
17
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
QUIET AND VFR CONDITIONS ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA. MINUS SOME AREAS
OF FOG, TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET. DUE TO SOME
DISAGREEMENTS IN MODEL GUIDANCE, REDUCED VIS WAS NOT PLACED IN THE
TAFS AT THIS MOMENT. TOMORROW RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD ASSIST IN
KEEPING DIURNAL ACTIVITY TO A MINIMUM, HOWEVER IT WILL NOT BE OUT
OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY TO SEE A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL
KEEP A PERSISTENT MAINLY LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE TO
GO ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LOW SEAS EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A DAILY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 72 94 72 94 / 10 10 10 20
LCH 74 91 75 91 / 10 20 10 30
LFT 74 92 74 91 / 10 30 10 50
BPT 75 91 75 91 / 10 20 0 30
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...87
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