151
FXUS64 KLCH 260726
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
226 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE NEAR THE AREA TODAY HELPING TO
BRING ABOUT SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS, WHILE THE TYPICAL SUMMER HEAT PERSISTS WITH
MAX AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES.
- FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST. EXPECT
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER WITH A DAILY CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO GO ALONG WITH THE USUAL
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
RADAR IS AS QUIET AS IT HAS BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AS NOT
TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF NOCTURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS MAY
FORETELL A LESS ACTIVE DAY AS FAR AS SHOWERS AND STORMS GO.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS NUDGED TO THE WEST AND OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST IT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH DEEPER MOISTURE OFF TO THE WEST WITH IT BEING
REPLACED BY SOME DRIER AND LOWER PWAT AIR. THEREFORE, LOOKING AT
LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CAMS SHOW ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
DURING MAX HEATING AND WITH ANY SEABREEZE BOUNDARY.
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE SATURDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME
MORE FLAT AND WEAKER. WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING,
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. DAYTIME
HEATING AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
LOOKS LIKE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AWAY FROM THE STORMS WITH MAX
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 100F AND
105F DEGREES.
RUA
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK THE PATTERN IS SETTING UP IN THE
LOW LEVELS WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP MAINLY
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW KEEPING AROUND GULF MOISTURE AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.
MEANWHILE, IN THE UPPER LEVELS, GENERAL PATTERN WILL SEE A RIDGE
TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A TROUGH TO THE EAST.
THEREFORE, LOOKS LIKE THE USUAL DAILY CHANCE OF THE DIURNAL AND
SEABREEZE DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. RAIN CHANCES WILL SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER EASTERN PORTIONS
CLOSER TO THE TROUGH AND A LITTLE LOWER OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS
THAT AREA WILL BE CLOSER TO THE RIDGE.
RUA
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
QUIET AND VFR CONDITIONS ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA. MINUS SOME AREAS
OF FOG, TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET. DUE TO SOME
DISAGREEMENTS IN MODEL GUIDANCE, REDUCED VIS WAS NOT PLACED IN THE
TAFS AT THIS MOMENT. TOMORROW RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD ASSIST IN
KEEPING DIURNAL ACTIVITY TO A MINIMUM, HOWEVER IT WILL NOT BE OUT
OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY TO SEE A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 207 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
A SURFACE HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND INTO THE COASTAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS AND RELATIVE LOW SEAS. THERE WILL BE A DAILY CHANCE OF
SEEING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HELP REDUCE RAIN CHANCES TODAY. DESPITE
THIS, LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
KEEPING THINGS ON THE HUMID SIDE WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 50 ACROSS UPPER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS WELL AS
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND AROUND 60 PERCENT ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR
TO THE COAST. MAINLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A DAILY CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO GO
ALONG WITH HOT AND HUMID DAYS AND MUGGY NIGHTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 94 72 94 73 / 10 10 20 10
LCH 90 75 91 75 / 20 10 40 10
LFT 92 74 91 74 / 30 10 50 10
BPT 90 75 91 75 / 20 0 30 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...87
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