506
FXUS64 KLCH 261951
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
251 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- NEARBY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AGAIN BRING ABOUT SLIGHTLY LOWER
RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW, WHILE THE TYPICAL SUMMER HEAT PERSISTS
WITH MAX AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 96 TO 105 DEGREES.
- FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST. EXPECT
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER WITH A DAILY CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO GO ALONG WITH THE USUAL
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
ANOTHER TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON IS ONGOING ACROSS THE CWA,
WITH AREA RADAR SHOWING ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS SE TX
AT THIS TIME, WHILE TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S. SURFACE/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING
DOMINATING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/SERN CONUS, WHILE A MID/UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS NOTED OVER FL/GA. 18Z LCH SOUNDING SHOWS 4302 J/KG
OF MUCAPE, VERY LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN, AND A PWAT OF
1.55" WHICH IS BELOW THE DAILY MEAN ACCORDING TO SPC CLIMO. WHILE
NOT A DRY CLIMATE BY ANY MEANS, IT'S CLEAR THAT HIGH PRESSURE IS
OVERHEAD. REGARDLESS, WITH AT LEAST MODEST MOISTURE AND PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE, CONVECTION HAS BEEN ABLE TO BLOSSOM ACROSS
SE TX THIS AFTERNOON. CAMS HAVEN'T HANDLED THIS DEVELOPMENT VERY
WELL HOWEVER, THE HOURLY HRRR IS BEGINNING TO GET A HANDLE ON IT,
AND LATEST RUNS SHOWS ADDITIONAL ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTH
LA THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID-90S THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS,
WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
TOMORROW INTO SATURDAY, RIDGING EXPANDS FURTHER WEST AND BEGINS
TO BROADEN OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US, WHILE ONSHORE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE CONTINUES TO PUMP WARM, MOIST AIR INLAND AT THE SURFACE.
WHILE RIDGING WILL PROVIDE SLIGHT CAPPING ALOFT, IT WON'T BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP AFTERNOON CONVECTION AT BAY. EXPECT ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON,
DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING/THE SEABREEZE, AND TAPER OFF WITH SUNSET
EACH DAY. AWAY FROM CONVECTION, HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
90S AMID SUNNY SKIES.
17
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
THE LONG TERM BRINGS PRETTY MUCH A RINSE A REPEAT OF THE ONGOING,
REPETITIVE SUMMER PATTERN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US KEEPS A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD, KEEPING WARM MOIST AIR OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH DAY AND FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S EACH NIGHT, WHICH IS NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. PRECIP WISE, A DAILY CHANCE FOR SCATTERED, TO AT
TIMES WIDESPREAD, SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED. WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BECOME SITUATED MORE TO OUR WEST BY THE START
OF THE WORK WEEK, WHILE A MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS LINGERS OVER THE SERN
CONUS FOR A BIT LONGER. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS ACADIANA AND THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN EACH DAY. STILL,
DAYTIME HEATING DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE PRETTY
MUCH AREA-WIDE EACH DAY.
17
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE TX, AND MAY
EXPAND ACROSS SOUTH LA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL, RAIN CHANCES
ARE RATHER LOW TODAY AND MOST TERMINALS WILL NOT SEE PRECIP,
THEREFORE JUST KEPT VCTS IN THE I-10 TAFS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION. OTHERWISE, LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CIGS/VIS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
A SURFACE HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND INTO THE COASTAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
AND RELATIVE LOW SEAS. THERE WILL BE A DAILY CHANCE OF SEEING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 72 94 73 94 / 10 20 10 20
LCH 74 91 76 91 / 10 20 10 40
LFT 74 91 74 91 / 10 40 10 60
BPT 74 91 75 91 / 0 20 10 30
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page