871
FXUS64 KLCH 270901
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
401 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH DAILY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS, AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S AND MAX HEAT INDICES FROM 98 TO 106 DEGREES.
- SOMEWHAT HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO
HIGHER TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE REGION.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF VERY WEAK GRADIENTS BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT AND DAILY, DIURNALLY DRIVEN, AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL BE THE STORY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. THE
WEAK GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT GENERALLY
UNDER 10 KNOTS AS WAS OBSERVED ON BOTH OF YESTERDAY'S RAOBS. THESE
CONDITIONS SUPPORTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL TROPICAL FUNNELS
AND WATERSPOUTS ALONG COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING MARINE STORMS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL FUNNELS AND WATERSPOUTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AS A REMINDER, WHILE TROPICAL FUNNELS CAN SOMETIMES APPEAR
VISUALLY IMPRESSIVE, THEY RARELY REACH THE GROUND AND, WHEN THEY
DO, OFTEN PRODUCE WINDS THAT ARE MUCH WEAKER THAN THOSE OF A
TRADITIONAL TORNADO AS THEY ARE NOT SUPPORTED BY A MESOCYCLONE.
THEY ARE ALSO VERY DIFFICULT TO OBSERVE ON RADAR SINCE THEIR
CIRCULATION ONLY EXTENDS TO THE CLOUD BASE WHICH MAY BE ONLY A FEW
HUNDRED FEET OFF THE SURFACE. IF A RELIABLE REPORT OF A TROPICAL
FUNNEL ON THE GROUND IS RECEIVED, THEN A TORNADO WARNING WILL BE
ISSUED, BUT THIS IS VERY RARE.
THE ONLY REAL CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE SUNDAY WHERE A
HIGHER SURGE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL WORK
INLAND OFF THE GULF INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. EVEN SO, THESE WILL STILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WITH THE MAJORITY OF STORMS DISSIPATING BY AROUND SUNSET
SUNDAY EVENING.
OTHERWISE, HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING
FROM 98 TO 106 WILL OCCUR EACH DAY WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID
70S EACH EVENING.
JONES
LONG TERM
(MONDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES WITH VERY LITTLE
VARIATION IN DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURES OR PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WHICH WILL RANGE FROM 30-40% ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA AND 50-60% IN AND AROUND THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN.
JONES
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
MINUS LIGHT PATCHY FOG FORMING ACROSS PARTS OF INTERIOR SETX, VFR
CONDITIONS ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT, A FEW OF THE
TERMINALS MIGHT SEE REDUCTIONS IN VIS DUE TO PATCHY FOG, HOWEVER
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS UNLIKELY. WHATEVER DOES FORM WILL BURN OFF
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. TOMORROW AFTERNOON WE WILL SEE MORE OF THE
SAME WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS LASTING UNTIL THE EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
A SURFACE HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND INTO THE COASTAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND
LOW SEAS. DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH LITTLE
DAY TO DAY CHANGE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RH IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AS WELL AS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR TO THE COAST. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH HOT, HUMID DAYS AND MUGGY NIGHTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 94 73 93 73 / 30 10 30 0
LCH 91 76 90 76 / 30 10 50 20
LFT 91 74 90 75 / 60 20 70 20
BPT 92 75 91 75 / 30 0 30 20
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...87
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