574
FXUS64 KLCH 281721
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1221 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH DAILY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS, AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AND MAX HEAT INDICES FROM 98 TO 107 DEGREES.
- SOMEWHAT HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO
HIGHER TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE REGION.
- A WEAK UPPER RIDGE MAY BUILD IN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
INCREASING TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES AND SLIGHTLY
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
THE TYPICALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES SURROUNDING THE
ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND STORMS WITH
STRONGER UPDRAFTS WILL AGAIN HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS. CONVECTION WILL AGAIN WANE AROUND SUNSET
WITH ACTIVITY LARGELY MOVING OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING SUBSTANTIALLY
HIGHER POPS SUNDAY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
CULPRIT OF THIS EXPANDED COVERAGE IS A DEEPER SLUG OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE LIFTING INTO THE REGION OUT OF THE GULF. THIS MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE LOOSELY CORRELATED TO THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NHC IS
MONITORING FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHICH
WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO MEXICO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
INCREASED COVERAGE AND EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING STORMS COULD
PRODUCE SOME NUISANCE STREET FLOODING IN A FEW LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT SEE MORE THAN ONE STORM. STORMS SHOULD AGAIN
DISSIPATE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET SUNDAY EVENING.
THE MOISTURE SURGE WILL CONTINUE LIFTING INLAND BY SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH AFTERNOON POPS RETURNING TO MORE NORMAL 40-60% MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
JONES
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY
AND REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL LIKELY LIMIT AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALTHOUGH
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SOME ACTIVITY STILL DEVELOPING
DURING PEAK HEATING. FEWER STORMS AND LESS CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY PUSH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE 92-95
THAT HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS AND MAX
HEAT INDICES WILL FOLLOW SUIT. NBM KEEPS HEAT INDICES BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW, BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
JONES
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING WHICH MAY CAUSE
PERIODS OF LOWER VIS AND CEILINGS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS
ARE ANTICIPATED SUNDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD AND GUSTY AT TIMES
NEAR STORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
A SURFACE HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND INTO THE COASTAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND
LOW SEAS. DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH LITTLE
DAY TO DAY CHANGE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RH IN THE MID 50S% TO LOWER 60S% AREA WIDE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH HOT, HUMID DAYS AND MUGGY NIGHTS. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGHER TROPICAL MOISTURE
MOVES INLAND OFF THE GULF.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 73 92 73 94 / 10 60 10 40
LCH 77 89 78 91 / 20 80 20 50
LFT 75 89 75 91 / 20 80 20 60
BPT 76 88 75 91 / 20 80 10 40
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...05
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