060
FXUS64 KLCH 290444
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1144 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH DAILY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS, AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AND MAX HEAT INDICES FROM 98 TO 107 DEGREES.
- SOMEWHAT HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO
HIGHER TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE REGION.
- A WEAK UPPER RIDGE MAY BUILD IN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
INCREASING TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES AND SLIGHTLY
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND WILL REMAIN ONGOING THROUGH SUNSET.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS CENTERED WELL INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. THE CORE OF
THE THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE WEST NORTHWEST INTO MEXICO SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY, HOWEVER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
FRINGES WILL MOVE INTO LA AND TX BY SUNDAY MORNING. AS DIURNAL
HEATING GETS UNDERWAY TOMORROW, THE EXTRA MOISTURE WILL ALLOW
STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE FROM TODAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
AFTERNOON STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED WHICH WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE
AS SUNSET APPROACHES.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL THEN DECREASE BACK TO MORE NORMAL
LEVELS BY MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND CLIMO AVERAGES DURING THE SHORT
TERM.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
TYPICAL HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM ALONG WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON STORMS.
WEAK RIDGING MAY BUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE
COMING WEEK WHICH MAY SLIGHTLY DECREASE RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASE
TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH NO RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS
OR VIS. PATCHY FOG MAY FORM NEAR AEX BUT VIS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
IN THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BEGIN AROUND 15/16Z AND WILL LAST
UNTIL SUNSET. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR NEAR CONVECTION
WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
A SURFACE HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND INTO THE COASTAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND
LOW SEAS. DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH LITTLE
DAY TO DAY CHANGE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH IN THE MID 50S% TO LOWER 60S% AREA WIDE.
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH HOT, HUMID
DAYS AND MUGGY NIGHTS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE SOMEWHAT
HIGHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGHER TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES INLAND
OFF THE GULF.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 73 92 73 94 / 10 60 10 40
LCH 77 89 78 91 / 20 80 20 50
LFT 75 89 75 91 / 20 80 20 60
BPT 76 88 75 91 / 20 80 10 40
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...14
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