481
FXUS64 KLCH 291132
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
632 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGHER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN
MONDAY WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS, HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AND MAX HEAT INDICES FROM 102 TO 106 DEGREES.
- A WEAK UPPER RIDGE MAY BUILD IN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
INCREASING TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES AND SLIGHTLY DECREASING
RAIN CHANCES ALTHOUGH DAILY AFTERNOON STORMS WILL CONTINUE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
A WEAK BOUNDARY IS OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH A
BROKEN LINE OF GENERALLY WEAK STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
IT. THIS IS A LIKELY PRECURSOR TO WHAT WILL BE A DAY OF HIGHER
THAN NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES DUE TO A SURGE OF DEEPER
MOISTURE EXTENDING, AT LEAST IN PART, FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR
DURING MAX HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WITH POPS RANGING FROM 70 TO 80%
AREA WIDE. IN TYPICAL SUMMER FASHION, EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WANE
DURING THE EVENING WITH MOST STORMS DISSIPATED BY SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET.
THE HIGHER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTH BY
MONDAY ALLOWING POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON TO FALL MORE IN LINE WITH
SCATTERED POP UP THUNDERSTORMS. BROAD RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL LOWER POPS A BIT ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
AND WESTERN LOUISIANA.
JONES
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
QUASISTATIONARY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GULF WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE WEAK SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
AND END OF THE WEEK. WHILE AFTERNOON STORMS ARE LIKELY TO STILL
OCCUR, THIS RIDGING WILL OFFER AN UPPER LIMIT TO COVERAGE. LESS
CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PUSH TEMPERATURES UP A
DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER WITH MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES FLIRTING WITH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS INTERIOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WILL ALSO SEE SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
ATCHAFALAYA BASIN FROM LAFAYETTE TO MORGAN CITY. HOWEVER, MOST OF
THESE WILL BE WEAKENING IF NOT COMPLETELY DISSIPATED BY FIREWORKS
TIME. IF PLANNING OR TAKING PART IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES, BE SURE TO
HAVE WAYS TO STAY COOL AND HAVE SOMEWHERE TO SEEK BRIEF SHELTER
SHOULD A QUICK THUNDERSTORM THREATEN.
JONES
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY WORKING
THEIR WAY INLAND FROM THE COAST AT THIS HOUR. EXPECT CONVECTION
TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE
MORNING BECOMING MOST WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
BEFORE WANING AROUND SUNSET. AWAY FROM STORMS, VFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MOVING AWAY FROM STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS AS WELL AS RAPID CHANGES IN
WIND DIRECTION.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
A SURFACE HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND INTO THE COASTAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND
LOW SEAS. DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH LITTLE
DAY TO DAY CHANGE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
ELEVATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS HIGHER TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION OFF THE GULF.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN VERY HUMID SURFACE CONDITIONS WITH
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH IN THE MID 60S% TO MID 70S% AREA WIDE.
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH HOT, HUMID
DAYS AND MUGGY NIGHTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 91 73 94 74 / 60 10 30 10
LCH 88 77 92 77 / 80 20 40 10
LFT 89 75 92 76 / 80 20 50 10
BPT 88 75 92 75 / 70 10 30 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...66
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