204
FXUS64 KLCH 300523
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1223 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
...NEW UPDATE, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
KEY MESSAGES
- DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
- AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN WILL PROVIDE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.
- NO TROPICAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO THE CWA OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
MINOR UPDATES MADE TO THE POP AND WX GRIDS TO REFLECT WANING EVENING
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL PARISHES AND GULF.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS EVENING, WITH ONLY A FEW
TAPERING THUNDERSTORMS OBSERVED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
ADJACENT PARISHES. OVERNIGHT, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS INTERIOR SETX AND
CENLA. HOWEVER, ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY MADE LANDFALL IN MEXICO EARLIER IN THE
EVENING AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE SOMETIME ON MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL HAVE NO IMPACTS ON OUR FORECAST AREA.
HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, A CLIMATOLOGICALLY TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST. A COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE, DAYTIME HEATING, AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL
SUPPORT DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. HOWEVER, WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION, CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL TREND DOWNWARD RELATIVE TO PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO SUPPORT A WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY INCREASING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
POSITIONED NEAR / DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. MEANWHILE, A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PROGRESS INTO THE SE CONUS. THIS FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA AND WILL HAVE NO IMPACTS TO OUR AREA. HOWEVER, A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LATER IN THE
PERIOD. NHC CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTS THIS AREA WITH A 20 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS. HOWEVER, NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FOR OUR CWA.
LOCALLY, THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC
FEATURE. A PERSISTENTLY MOIST AIRMASS AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON,
BUT SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL GENERALLY LIMIT THESE STORMS.
SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED, IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S, WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOUT 2 TO 6°F ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS, YIELDING AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 102 TO
110°F, FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. AS A RESULT, CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT
THE ISSUANCE OF HEAT ADVISORIES. THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY
OVER SUBSEQUENT FORECAST CYCLES.
REGARDLESS OF HEAT HEADLINE ISSUANCE, ALL SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
DURING PROLONGED OUTDOOR EXPOSURE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE OF BRIEF
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH PATCHY FOG, MAINLY ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SETX AND CENLA. CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD FOG
FORMATION REMAINS LOW. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER RIDGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA, WITH
PREVAILING LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW SEAS. RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL DECREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SUPPRESSES
MOVES OVERHEAD. OVERALL, BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
GENERALLY IN THE 45 TO 65 PERCENT RANGE. NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 91 72 93 74 / 60 10 20 10
LCH 88 77 92 77 / 70 20 30 0
LFT 89 75 91 75 / 70 20 40 10
BPT 88 76 92 74 / 70 20 30 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...87
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