356
FXUS64 KLCH 041759
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1259 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- MAX HEAT INDICES TOP OUT IN THE 100 TO 105F RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. GRADUAL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
- WEAKNESS ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
- NO TROPICAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO THE CWA OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, ACCOMPANIED BY OCCASIONAL
RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WHILE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED, A FEW CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS TX. PERSISTENT DENSE CLOUD COVER HAS
LIMITED DIURNAL HEATING, WHICH HAS SUBSEQUENTLY REDUCED
INSTABILITY AND SUPPORTED A MORE SUBDUED CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT.
THIS HAS ALSO CONTRIBUTED TO THE WELCOMED SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
OVERNIGHT, CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SCATTER, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. UNFORTUNATELY, THE RESULTANT DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE SLIGHTLY OVER
THE WEEKEND, TRENDING JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS. OVERNIGHT LOWS, HOWEVER, WILL PROVIDE LITTLE RELIEF,
GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. ALTHOUGH FORECAST
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS, THE PERSISTENCE OF WARM, HUMID CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH HOLIDAY RELATED OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WARRANTS
CONTINUED CAUTION FOR HEAT SENSITIVE POPULATIONS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH PART OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD, MAINTAINING A DAILY POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED,
PRIMARILY DIURNAL CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S. DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD IN.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND, ALONG WITH A SMALL
REDUCTION IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BKN
TO OVC UPPER DECKS WILL PERSIST, WITH SOME POCKETS OF LOWER CIGS
AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY, PRIMARILY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WHILE ISOLATED STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE DUE TO WEAK
INSTABILITY, CONFIDENCE IS LOW, AND THUS CONVECTION IS ONLY
MENTIONED AS A TEMPO. PRECIP CHANCES TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS, THOUGH IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND LOCALIZED. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM
WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE DAY, WITH
TYPICAL LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ONCE
AGAIN BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
HIGH PRESSURE AREA SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF, WHILE WEAK
AND MEANDERING AT TIMES, WILL RESULT IN LIGHT, VARIABLE WINDS AND
LOW SEAS THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK. DURING THE SAME TIME
FRAME, EXPANSIVE LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EXPANDS INTO THE
NORTHEAST GULF. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN GENERAL WEAKNESS ALOFT
AND A RETURN TO TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF ONSHORE FLOW AND
LOW SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
SCATTERED DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST THIS
WEEKEND AS A RESULT OF A WEAKNESS ALOFT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS, WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY RANGING FROM 40 TO 60
PERCENT. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 72 96 72 96 / 10 10 0 30
LCH 76 93 75 93 / 10 30 10 40
LFT 74 94 75 93 / 10 30 10 70
BPT 75 93 73 93 / 20 20 10 30
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...87
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