075
FXUS64 KLCH 051800
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
100 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- REGARDLESS OF HEAT HEADLINE ISSUANCE, PLEASE CONTINUE TO
PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY PRECAUTIONS.
- WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY
TO MID THIS WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
A RELATIVELY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS UNFOLDING ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, REDUCED CLOUD COVER IS ALLOWING FOR INCREASED SURFACE
HEATING, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE MID 90S.
A WEAKENING RIDGE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE AREA, THOUGH IT IS
GRADUALLY ERODING AS A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES AND AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE, ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL, LINGERS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. WHILE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE IS STILL
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPRESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION, ISOLATED TO LOW END
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND TAPERING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.
A TRANSITION IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL LOW DETACHES AND MIGRATES WESTWARD,
POSITIONING ITSELF OVER THE GULF. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS (WITHIN ~3°F), THOUGH HIGH HUMIDITY
WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100 TO 105°F EACH
AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS DOES NOT MEET LOCAL HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA,
PROLONGED EXPOSURE MAY STILL POSE HEALTH RISKS—PARTICULARLY FOR
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS. HYDRATION, SUN PROTECTION, AND FREQUENT
COOLING BREAKS ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED FOR THOSE WITH PROLONGED
OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERING
ACROSS THE REGION, PROMOTING DAILY CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO MIDWEEK. BY LATE WEEK, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION OF HEIGHTS AS RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN.
THIS TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO
SOME DEGREE, ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DECREASES, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB SLIGHTLY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKEWISE TREND
UPWARD, POTENTIALLY REACHING NUMERICAL THRESHOLDS FOR HEAT
HEADLINES LATE IN THE PERIOD. REGARDLESS OF OFFICIAL CRITERIA
BEING MET, HEAT RISKS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN, AND HEAT SAFETY
MEASURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE PRACTICED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF
CYCLE, WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG ANY SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON, WARRANTING VCSH
MENTION FOR COASTAL TERMINALS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY FOG CANNOT
BE RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, THOUGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND IMPACTS REMAINS LOW AT THIS
TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL RETURN TO TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERING AROUND THE NORTHWEST GULF TODAY
AND EARLY SUNDAY WILL KEEP SEAS LOW AND RAIN CHANCES FAIRLY LOW.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BEYOND, EXPECT DAILY CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AS PATTERNS STALL AND WEAKNESS
REMAINS OVERHEAD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE EARLY TO MID THIS WORK WEEK. DAILY
MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 40 TO 65 PERCENT RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED.
WITH LITTLE FORCING, WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN FAIRLY LOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 74 96 72 94 / 0 30 10 50
LCH 76 93 76 91 / 0 30 10 60
LFT 75 93 74 91 / 10 50 20 70
BPT 74 93 74 91 / 0 20 10 50
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...87
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