474
FXUS64 KLCH 061127
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
627 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND WILL SUPPORT
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY WORK WEEK.
- THE WEAKNESS BEGINS TO DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY AND WILL BE
REPLACED WITH RIDGING ALOFT BOTH TO THE EAST AND WEST, RESULTING
IN CLIMBING TEMPS AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES LATER IN THE
PERIOD
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
A CHANGE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS IMMINENT AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETROGRADE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST NOW
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL BECOME SITUATED NEAR THE SOUTH
MS/SE LA COASTLINE TODAY, BEFORE EVENTUALLY MAKING ITS WAY TO TO SE
TX/SW LA COAST BY MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, AS CAPPING ALOFT DISSIPATES AND THE
UPPER LOW PROVIDES ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION. TODAY, THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO EXIST ACROSS ACADIANA AND THE
ATCHAFALAYA BASIN, WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW WILL BE STRONGER.
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THEN EXPAND AREA-WIDE ON MONDAY. CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON, AS PER USUAL, WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN OUR TYPICAL RUN OF THE MILL SUMMERTIME POP-UP
STORMS.
BY TUESDAY, THE UPPER LOW BECOMES STALLED NEAR SE TX/SW LA AND
GRADUALLY WEAKENS AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF COAST
FROM THE EAST AND A SECOND RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS. WITH THE LOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IT WILL ESSENTIALLY
GET SQUEEZED, WEAKEN, AND DISSIPATE BY THE MID-WEEK. MODEST RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT SHOULD BE MORE TYPICAL
DAYTIME HEATING DRIVEN STORMS VS BEING FUELED BY THE LOW.
TEMPERATURE WISE, HIGHS CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE LOW TO MID-90S, WITH
SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR MON AND TUES THANKS TO HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES/CLOUD COVER. OVERNIGHT, LOWS FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST. APPARENT TEMPS REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT THOSE SPENDING EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME OUTSIDE SHOULD
STILL REMAIN CAUTIOUS AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS.
17
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
THE MID TO LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BRING MORE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH A RETURN OF TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY. THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES SITUATED BETWEEN 2
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGES ON WEDNESDAY, WITH A SLIGHT WEAKNESS (WHAT
REMAINS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW) OVERHEAD. THESE RIDGES
WILL SEEMINGLY BATTLE IT OUT FOR CONTROL OF THE NW GULF COAST,
WITH THE NBM SEEMING TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WESTERN RIDGE "WINNING
OUT". AS A RESULT, RAIN CHANCES DECREASE ACROSS SE TX/W LA EACH
DAY THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK, WHILE MODEST RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE FOR CENLA AND ACADIANA AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THERE. DEFINITELY THINK WE COULD SEE SOME
CHANGES WITH THE PLACEMENT OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LATER IN THE
WEEK, AS MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY THIS FAR OUT, BUT REGARDLESS NOT
EXPECTING THESE RAIN CHANCES TO CAUSE MUCH OF ANY ISSUES AS THEY
WILL BE LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN NATURE. OTHERWISE, MAIN
CONCERN THROUGH THE LATE WEEK WILL BE RISING TEMPS, AS RIDGING
EXPANDS OVERHEAD AND TEMPS WARM. NBM BRINGS IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER
90S ACROSS INTERIOR SE TX AND CENLA BY FRI/SAT, WHICH COULD RESULT
IN SOME LOCATIONS REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. JUST SOMETHING
TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR NOW, WITH THIS BEING AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
17
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
SOME PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KAEX
THROUGH ABOUT 06/14Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
WILL MENTION VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 06/19Z. WITH A
DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE EAST INTO ACADIANA A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCE OF SEEING CONVECTION OVER THERE SO WILL HAVE PRO30 GROUPS
AT KLFT/KARA FROM 06/22Z TO 07/02Z FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER AROUND THE
NORTHWEST GULF TODAY, KEEPING LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS IN PLACE.
THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION BEGINS TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TODAY AND MORE SUBSTANTIALLY TOMORROW AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES OVERHEAD. RAIN CHANCES THEN DECREASE SOME THROUGH THE
MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES, WITH TYPICAL
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES OVERHEAD AND STALLS. DAILY MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 45 TO
65 PERCENT RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WITH
LITTLE FORCING, WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND OUT OF THE
SOUTH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 95 72 94 71 / 20 20 60 10
LCH 93 76 91 75 / 30 10 70 10
LFT 93 74 91 74 / 50 20 80 10
BPT 93 75 91 74 / 20 10 60 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...07
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