864
FXUS64 KLCH 061759
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1259 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
-AN UPPER LOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING.
-THIS FEATURE WILL BE REPLACED BY STRONG RIDGING OUT WEST AND
WEAK RIDGING TO OUR EAST.
-GRADUALLY DECREASING POPS AND INCREASING HEAT & HUMIDITY ARE
EXPECTED LATER IN THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
CONVECTION HAS ALREADY INITIATED LATE THIS MORNING ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE, PARTICULARLY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. DIURNAL HEATING
COMBINED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 AND THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THANKS TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY RETROGRADING OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF, AND IS FORECAST TO MEANDER NEAR OR OVER THE CWA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE
TODAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ACADIANA AND THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN, WHERE
THE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW MAXIMIZES LIFT AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. AS SUCH, WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THIS AREA UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S,
TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES NEAR
THE COAST. APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA, THOUGH PRECAUTIONS SHOULD STILL BE TAKEN FOR
THOSE EXPOSED TO PROLONGED PERIODS OUTDOORS AND HEAT SENSITIVE
POPULATIONS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
BY MIDWEEK, THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD FROM BOTH THE DESERT SW AND THE ATLANTIC / EAST COAST.
THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED, WITH OUR REGION
SITTING IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. AS HEIGHTS INCREASE, EXPECT
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND, PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK, BUT
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE LIMITED, FAVORING EASTERN AREAS
WHERE RIDGING INFLUENCE IS WEAKER. WITH REDUCED RAIN CHANCES AND
CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB, LEADING TO HIGHER
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES. THESE MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS LATE IN THE PERIOD. EVEN IF OFFICIAL CRITERIA ARE NOT
MET, HEAT RELATED IMPACTS REMAIN A CONCERN, AND ALL ARE ENCOURAGED
TO CONTINUE PRACTICING HEAT SAFETY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS HAVE INITIATED ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE LATE THIS MORNING, WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FROM CENLA TO S CENLA DUE TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LOW. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. PATCHY FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, BUT
IMPACTS TO VISIBILITY SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION BEGINS TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. RAIN CHANCES THEN
DECREASE SOME THROUGH THE MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND
DISSIPATES, WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN WEAK / LOW THROUGH THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES OVERHEAD AND STALLS. DAILY MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 45 TO 65
PERCENT RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WITH LITTLE
FORCING, WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND OUT OF THE SOUTH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 72 94 72 93 / 20 50 10 70
LCH 76 91 76 90 / 10 60 20 80
LFT 75 91 74 90 / 30 80 10 80
BPT 75 91 75 90 / 10 50 20 70
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...87
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