653
FXUS64 KLCH 070526
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1226 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
-AN UPPER LOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING.
-THIS FEATURE WILL BE REPLACED BY STRONG RIDGING OUT WEST AND WEAK
RIDGING TO OUR EAST, WITH A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS SITUATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AS OF
00Z ANALYSIS, WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ONGOING OVERHEAD. 00Z LCH
SOUNDING SHOWS A PWAT OF 1.54", WHICH IS NEAR THE 25TH PERCENTILE
FOR THIS DATE ACCORDING TO SPC CLIMO. UNFORTUNATELY FOR US, THIS
DRIER AIR ISN'T REALLY MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE WITH CURRENTLY RH
VALUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA RANGING FROM AROUND 80 TO 100%.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE, WITH MORNING
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXPECTED.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WORK WEEK, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TREK WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST, EVENTUALLY BECOMING SITUATED NEAR THE TX/LA BOARDER WHERE IT
WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AND BECOME ABSORBED IN THE LARGER FLOW ALOFT.
AS IT TRACKS WEST TODAY IT WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY AS DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS TO
RAMP UP THROUGH THE MID/LATER HALF OF THE DAY. WHILE CONVECTION
SHOULD AGAIN BE FAIRLY SCATTERED IN NATURE, COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE
A BIT MORE THAN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SHOWERS, THANKS TO THE ADDITIONAL
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OVERHEAD. WHILE THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
LARGELY DISSIPATE TOMORROW, NBM CONTINUES TO PANT RATHER HIGH POPS
ACROSS THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. OPTED TO TAMPER THESE DOWN SLIGHTLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY DRIER MODEL TRENDS (BOTH IN THE CAMS AND GLOBAL
MODELS). DEFINITELY THINK WE WILL SEE A GOOD SMATTERING OF
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE A
BIT LESS THAN TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SLOWLY WANES.
BY WEDNESDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE DESERT
SW, WHILE TO OUR EAST UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD FROM THE
ATLANTIC ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. GLOBAL MODELS DO DEPICT A
VERY BROAD WEAKNESS LINGERING BETWEEN THESE FEATURES ACROSS EAST
TX/WEST LA HOWEVER, IT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH INFLUENCE
THIS WILL REALLY HAVE. THE EURO CONTINUES TO PAINT HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES FOR WED AND BEYOND, WHILE THE REMAINING GLOBAL MODELS ARE
LEANING TOWARDS A MORE TYPICAL SOLUTION OF FAIRLY SCATTERED
CONVECTION AND LOWER POPS. REGARDLESS, IT DOESN'T SEEM LIKE THE
TWO RIDGES WILL HAVE MUCH CONTROL OF THE FORECAST AREA QUITE YET,
SO WE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS FIRE UP BY
MIDDAY AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WE BEGIN TO SEE SOME INFLUENCE FROM
THE DESERT SW RIDGE AS IT EXPANDS ACROSS TX AND CONTINUES TO
AMPLIFY. RAIN CHANCES FOR SE TX BEGIN TO DECREASE A BIT THROUGH
THIS PERIOD, WHILE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION KEEPS DECENTLY
HIGH RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE (TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION).
DEFINITELY THINK NBM IS A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE REGARDING POPS IN
THE LONG TERM, BUT WE'LL SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT WITH THE 2 RIDGES
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE TEMPERATURES, AS RIDGING ALOFT BRINGS
WARMER TEMPS AND IN TURN HIGHER HEAT INDICES. WE MAY START TO SEE
APPARENT TEMPS APPROACH OR EXCEED HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A BIT OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT AEX AS WE
APPROACH SUNRISE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN
DEVELOP THROUGH THE MIDDAY AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS MAY OCCASIONALLY PASS OVER THE TERMINALS
REDUCING VIS AND BRINGING GUSTY WINDS. AWAY FROM CONVECTION VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER COVERAGE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TOMORROW VS THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MEANDER AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN US PROVIDING A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW SEAS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
AN UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD AND STALLS. THE LOW GRADUALLY
DISSIPATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.
DAILY MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 50 TO 65 PERCENT RANGE CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WITH LITTLE FORCING, WINDS WILL
ALSO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND OUT OF THE SOUTH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 94 72 93 72 / 40 10 60 10
LCH 91 76 92 76 / 60 20 70 20
LFT 90 75 91 75 / 60 10 70 10
BPT 91 75 91 75 / 50 20 70 20
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17
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