415
FXUS64 KLCH 072319
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
619 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-AN UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES OF SEA BREEZE AND
DAYTIME HEATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
-AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING AROUND A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL CONTINUE A BREAK IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
-OVER THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO THE
REGION BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND AN
INCREASE IN THE HEAT.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING JUST SOUTH
OF THE LOUISIANA COAST. SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE HAS BEEN NOTED
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS WITH GOES PWAT INCREASING TO BETWEEN
1.8 - 1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THAT, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED, ESPECIALLY WHERE THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY IS SETTING UP. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE AND SPREAD
INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 30 - 35
MPH AND SOME BRIEF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STORMS, ESPECIALLY WHERE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES COLLIDE.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY PUSH WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND BECOME STRETCHED AS IT MOVES INTO EAST TEXAS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS ALOFT TO KEEP DIURNAL
AND SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON,
ALTHOUGH SOME ACTIVITY COULD GET AN EARLY START NEAR THE COAST.
RUA
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL BEGIN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH MAINLY
TYPICAL MOISTURE VALUES WITH PWAT IN THE 1.8 TO 2 INCH RANGE
PROJECTED AND MEAN LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OVER 60 PERCENT,
THE DAILY CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE.
BY THE WEEKEND, THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
WILL BRING ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER RAIN CHANCES. ALONG WITH
THAT, AN INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY. A LITTLE EARLY, BUT MAX
APPARENT TEMPERATURE TOOL SUGGESTS THAT MAX AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
READINGS WILL BE IN THE 108 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE, AND IF THIS
VERIFIES, A HEAT ADVISORY WOULD NEED TO BE ISSUED.
RUA
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
CURRENTLY THERE ARE STILL A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ABOUT
THE AREA, HOWEVER, NONE DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE TAF SITES AT THE
MOMENT, HENCE CARRYING VCTS UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. MINUS SOME
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
QUIET AND VFR. WHATEVER FOG FORMS WILL BE QUICK TO BURNOFF AFTER
SUNRISE. TOMORROW AFTERNOON WE CAN EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION, THANKS TO AN UPPER LOW THAT HAS ITS INFLUENCE ON THE
REGION.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL
RIDGE ACROSS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE ALONG WITH LOW SEAS. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL KEEP A DAILY CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THE PERIOD AND THIS
WILL KEEP HIGH HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION. MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE. A
WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A DAILY CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH ALONG THE COAST SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY START SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 72 93 72 93 / 10 60 20 70
LCH 76 91 76 92 / 20 70 20 70
LFT 75 90 75 91 / 10 70 10 80
BPT 76 91 75 91 / 20 70 20 70
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...87
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