986
FXUS64 KLCH 081109
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
609 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SUPPORT INCREASED DIURNAL CONVECTION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY.
-STRONG RIDGING OUT WEST AND WEAK RIDGING TO THE EAST WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
-GRADUALLY DECREASING PRECIP AND INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY CAN
BE EXPECTED HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT MIGRATED WESTWARD INTO THE REGION IS NOW
LOCATED PARTIALLY OVER AND DUE SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS FEATURE,
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING, WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
HOWEVER, CHANCES WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY OVER SETX AND PORTIONS OF
CENLA LATER IN THE WORK WEEK. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, ELEVATED WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY LEAD TO
PONDING AND MINOR STREET FLOODING.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS TREND WILL RESULT FROM TWO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGES, ONE STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A WEAKER
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. THESE WILL WORK IN TANDEM TO RAISE
HEIGHTS OVER THE CWA. HOWEVER, ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL
PERSIST, SO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE REDUCED RATHER THAN ELIMINATED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S,
TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES
NEAR THE COAST. APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, THOUGH PRECAUTIONS SHOULD STILL BE TAKEN
FOR PROLONGED OUTDOOR EXPOSURE AND FOR HEAT SENSITIVE POPULATIONS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
ELEVATED, DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK DUE TO THE LINGERING WEAKNESS ALOFT. HOWEVER, ACTIVITY
WILL BE MORE LIMITED THAN IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER RIDGES INCREASES. THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL BECOME MORE
PRONOUNCED OVER THE WEEKEND, AND AS HEIGHTS RISE, A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH REDUCED RAIN CHANCES AND LESS CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY CLIMB, LEADING TO HIGHER AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES. THESE
MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED MINIMUM HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS LATE IN
THE PERIOD. EVEN IF OFFICIAL CRITERIA ARE NOT MET, HEAT RELATED
IMPACTS REMAIN A CONCERN, AND ALL ARE ENCOURAGED TO CONTINUE
PRACTICING HEAT SAFETY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING NORTH FROM THE GULF
AND WILL BE IMPACTING KLCH THIS MORNING. THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS ALONG I-10, BPT, LFT, AND ARA WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THE STORMS LATER IN THE MORNING. NEAR THE CONVECTION CONDITIONS
WILL RAPIDLY DROP TO IFR WITH LOW CIGS AND VIS. GUSTY WINDS WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR WITH HIGH CEILINGS
AND CLEAR VISIBILITY. AFTER SUNSET CONVECTION WILL FADE AWAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL
RIDGE ACROSS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE ALONG WITH LOW SEAS. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL KEEP A DAILY CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THE PERIOD AND THIS
WILL KEEP HIGH HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION. MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE. A
WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A DAILY CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH ALONG THE COAST SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY START SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 93 72 92 73 / 60 20 70 30
LCH 90 76 92 77 / 80 20 80 30
LFT 90 74 91 76 / 80 20 80 30
BPT 90 75 91 75 / 80 20 70 30
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...14
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