095
FXUS64 KLCH 082301
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
601 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT INCREASED
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH TOMORROW WITH SOME LOCALLY TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.
-THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WEAKEN ON THURSDAY AS IT MOVES INTO
TEXAS. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER MOVING ACROSS MAY HELP TO DECREASE
CONVECTION ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
-FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK,
THEREFORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST OFF THE THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST IS
MOVING GRADUALLY TO THE WEST. EARLIER CONVECTION FROM THIS MORNING
HAS WORKED OVER THE AIRMASS WITH REMNANT STRATIFORM RAIN OVER
LOWER ACADIANA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE EARLIER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. GOES PWAT SHOWING AROUND 2
INCHES FOR THOSE LOCATIONS, SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE LOCATED JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEFORE SUNRISE OVER THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST THAT WILL TRY TO PUSH INLAND.
THEN ACTIVITY WILL TAKE A BREAK BEFORE REDEVELOPING AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. AGAIN PWAT AROUND 2 INCHES IS PROGGED WITH MEAN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY ABOVE 70 PERCENT SO SOME TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
AGAIN POSSIBLE AND WPC HAS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND JUST OVER INTO THE
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THAT MAY LEAD TO FLOODING OR BETWEEN 5
AND 14 PERCENT CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING.
THURSDAY IS INTERESTING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO TEXAS AND
BECOMES STRETCHED AND WEAKENED. HOWEVER, A BASIC WEAKNESS ALOFT
REMAINS WITH HIGH PWAT AIR. THAT WOULD NORMALLY MEAN DIURNAL
CONVECTION. HOWEVER, DUST MODELS SHOW A SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL)
MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA DURING THE
DAY. WHICH IN EFFECT WOULD TEND TO DECREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY. WENT
WITH NBM POPS FOR NOW, BUT THEY COULD BE ON THE HIGH SIDE AND MAY
NEED ADJUSTING DOWNWARD AS WE GET CLOSER TO THURSDAY.
RUA
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
A RELATIVE WEAKNESS OR A FLAT RIDGE LOOKS TO BE HANGING AROUND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DAILY CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, INDICATIONS ARE FOR A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THAT WILL DECREASE RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASE THE HEAT.
RUA
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 557 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD, HOWEVER
A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER IN CEN LA FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION
WILL BEGIN ALONG THE COAST AROUND SUNRISE AND GRADUALLY SPREAD
INLAND. PERIODS OF LOWER VIS AND CEILINGS CAN OCCUR IN CONVECTION.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP A MAINLY
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE WITH RELATIVELY LOW SEAS. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW A MOIST AIR MASS TO PERSIST WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 60 PERCENT. A RELATIVE WEAKNESS
ALOFT WILL KEEP A DAILY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 71 93 72 93 / 20 70 30 60
LCH 76 91 77 92 / 30 70 30 70
LFT 75 90 75 90 / 20 70 20 70
BPT 74 90 75 91 / 30 60 30 60
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...05
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