630
FXUS64 KLCH 091133
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
633 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT INCREASED
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LOCALLY
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.
-THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WEAKEN ON THURSDAY AS IT MOVES INTO
TEXAS. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER MOVING ACROSS MAY HELP TO DECREASE
CONVECTION SOMEWHAT LATE IN THE WEEK.
-FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK,
THEREFORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
AN UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND THE SW
STATES WHILE A ANOTHER RIDGE IS CENTERED EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS OF
NC. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. THIS PUTS LA AND FAR SE
TX ROUGHLY IN THE COL AREA BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. MOISTURE LEVELS
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LVL FEATURES IS RUNNING HIGH
AT 1.8" TO 1.9" OF PWAT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WHICH IS ROUGHLY THE
75TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE. AT THE SURFACE, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND IS
PROVIDING A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS LA AND SE TX.
THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LIGHT FLOW,
LACK OF A RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD, AND POOLING OF MOISTURE BETWEEN
THE RIDGES AND UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AFTER A MORNING OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS ALONG THE COAST. STORM MOTION WILL BE FAIRLY SLOW AND THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE SOUPY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT TYPICAL FOR EARLY TO MID JULY.
A WEAKNESS ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A
SLIGHTLY WARM MID LVL LAYER ASSOCIATE WITH THE SAL MAY DECREASE
RAIN CHANCES SOMEWHAT FROM WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A WEAKNESS ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORM AND THE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, BY EARLY NEXT WEEK A RIDGE ALOFT
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST. THIS MAY DECREASE RAIN CHANCES
AND INCREASE TEMPERATURES 2 OR 3 DEGREES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A CONCERN AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS
WE REMAIN IN A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
AFTER SUNSET CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY FADE AWAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
WEAK RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED, HOWEVER THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
AS A WEAKNESS ALOFT LINGERS OVER THE REGION. WINDS AND SEAS MAY BE
HIGHER NEAR STORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ANTICIPATED EACH DAY THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
REMAIN TYPICALLY HIGH AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN LINE WITH
CLIMATE AVERAGES THROUGH SUNDAY.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW A MOIST AIR MASS TO PERSIST WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 60 PERCENT. A RELATIVE WEAKNESS
ALOFT WILL KEEP A DAILY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 91 72 93 73 / 60 30 60 10
LCH 90 76 92 77 / 60 20 60 10
LFT 90 75 91 75 / 70 20 70 10
BPT 90 75 91 75 / 60 20 50 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...14
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