624
FXUS64 KLCH 091747
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1247 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
-THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WEAKEN ON THURSDAY AS IT MOVES INTO
TEXAS. STILL ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS ALOFT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH A MODEST SAHARAN AIR LAYER
MOVING ACROSS MAY HELP TO DECREASE CONVECTION SOMEWHAT LATE IN
THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY.
-FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD DURING THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE USUAL HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.
-THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THIS
SHOULD DECREASE RAIN CHANCES WHILE INCREASING THE HEAT. POTENTIAL
FOR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS EARLY AS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NEARING THE EAST TEXAS COAST. IT LOOKS LIKE
THIS FEATURE IS OPENING UP SOME WITH THE TROUGH AXIS UP INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS IS PROVIDING ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS ALOFT TO GO
ALONG WITH DECENT MOISTURE VALUES WITH PWAT BETWEEN 1.9 AND 2
INCHES, THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL
HAVE SOME GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH WITH THEM, TO GO ALONG WITH
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS THAT
COULD PRODUCE A QUICK ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN.
ON THURSDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO TEXAS AND WEAKEN FURTHER. THERE WILL BE DECENT MOISTURE
HANGING AROUND, ALTHOUGH PROBABLY NOT AS HIGHLY ANOMALOUS AS IT
HAS BEEN. THERE WILL ALSO BE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS ALOFT THAT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DIURNAL TYPE AND SEABREEZE TYPE STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, MODELS STILL SHOW A MODEST SAHARAN AIR LAYER
ROTATING AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT LOOKS TO REACH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY THEN EXPAND OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
THEREFORE, THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME INHIBITION OF THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCE, ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.
RUA
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
A RATHER WEAK FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS BRINGING IN GULF MOISTURE.
THEREFORE, EXPECT RATHER TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER WITH THE HOT
AND HUMID DAYS, AND SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK INDICATIONS ARE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY
DECREASE THE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS. MEANWHILE, HIGH HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH HIGHER AIR TEMPERATURES DUE TO
THE LACK OF CONVECTION AND COOLING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THEREFORE,
HEAT RISK MAY INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
RUA
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET OR ABOUT 10/02Z.
UNTIL THEN, POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE STORMS. AWAY FROM THE STORMS EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS.
RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
WEAK SURFACE HIGH RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA WILL HELP KEEP A MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG
WITH RELATIVELY LOW SEAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A DAILY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING, WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE
REGION. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ENOUGH OF A
WEAKNESS ALOFT TO KEEP A DAILY CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 71 92 73 95 / 40 60 10 30
LCH 75 91 77 91 / 20 60 10 40
LFT 75 90 76 91 / 20 70 10 60
BPT 74 91 75 91 / 30 50 10 30
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07
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