232
FXUS64 KLCH 100545
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1245 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WEAKEN ON THURSDAY AS IT MOVES INTO
TEXAS. STILL ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS ALOFT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH A MODEST SAHARAN AIR LAYER
MOVING ACROSS MAY HELP TO DECREASE CONVECTION SOMEWHAT LATE IN
THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY.
-FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD DURING THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE USUAL HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.
-THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THIS
SHOULD DECREASE RAIN CHANCES WHILE INCREASING THE HEAT. POTENTIAL
FOR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS EARLY AS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
AND WESTERN LOUISIANA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ELEVATED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING SIMILAR
TO WHAT WAS SEEN WEDNESDAY. THESE STORMS WILL STILL BE RELIANT ON
DIURNAL HEATING TO INITIALIZE AND WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY
EVENING AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL. WIDESPREAD STORMS ALONG WITH
THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 90-92
DEGREE RANGE WHICH WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER NOON.
THE TROF AXIS WILL BREAK DOWN TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
LEAVING A FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALOFT WHICH WILL NEITHER
PARTICULARLY FAVOR NOR INHIBIT DAILY AFTERNOON CONVECTION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE EXCLUSIVELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. OWING TO THE
WEAK WINDS ALOFT, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY MOVE ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE OR SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY.
JONES
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE GULF
AND ADJACENT COASTS SUNDAY WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST
MID WEEK. THIS WILL INHIBIT DAILY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL, IN TURN, ALLOW AFTERNOON
HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN WHAT MIGHT BE THE
HOTTEST WEEK OF THE SUMMER SO FAR. MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY.
JONES
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. AEX HAS
SEEN SOME INTERMITTENT GROUND FOG DEVELOP OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE. WHILE VERY
BRIEF PERIODS OF MORE DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE, VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY AROUND 5-6 MILES BEFORE BECOMING
UNLIMITED AGAIN BY 13Z.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS SITTING OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH ACTIVITY
BEGINNING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, BUT INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY BY
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT MAY RESULT
IN BRIEF PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS AND RAPID CHANGES IN WIND
DIRECTION. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING WITH
MOST STORMS ENDING BY SUNSET. AWAY FROM STORMS, LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW SEAS THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES
SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE
REGION. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY WITH MORE TYPICAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN LOWER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 89 72 94 72 / 70 10 40 0
LCH 90 77 92 77 / 70 20 50 10
LFT 89 75 91 75 / 80 20 70 10
BPT 91 75 91 77 / 60 20 30 20
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...66
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